[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is an Offensive Trump Possible, and Can North Korean Command Be Attacked?

[Asia Economy Reporter Yang Nak-gyu] As the United States eliminated Qasem Soleimani, a key figure in the Iranian military and commander of the Quds Force (an elite unit of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps), attention is turning to North Korea's potential preemptive strike. Analysts suggest that if North Korea continues high-intensity provocations following the removal of Soleimani, the U.S. may once again consider military options.

According to foreign media reports, U.S. President Donald Trump took military options into consideration on the 27th of last month after being informed of the death of an American civilian in Iraq due to a rocket attack. It was seen as crossing the red line. The U.S. Department of Defense reportedly stated that after Iran's attacks on oil tankers in May last year, the downing of a U.S. drone in June, and the attack on Saudi oil fields in September, "If we do not respond now, Iran will think it can do anything."

The U.S. elimination of Commander Soleimani could also apply to North Korea. The U.S. has set red lines for North Korea as well. These red lines include high-intensity provocations such as nuclear and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) tests that directly threaten the U.S. mainland. If North Korea continues such provocations, the U.S. might again consider the military option reviewed in 2017, known as the 'bloody nose strategy.'

If the U.S. attempts a preemptive strike, it may prefer to use unmanned attack drones rather than large weapons like strategic bombers or F-22s. The choice would be for pinpoint strikes rather than escalation. Currently, in Gunsan, Jeonbuk Province, there is the Gray Eagle company established in February 2018. This company is equipped with 12 Gray Eagle (MQ-1C, pictured) drones. The Gray Eagle can conduct surveillance and intelligence gathering over an operational area of 400 km at an altitude of 7.6 km. In emergencies, it can be armed with Hellfire anti-tank missiles and the latest small precision-guided bomb GBU-44/B Viper Strike to infiltrate North Korean airspace and precisely strike key targets.

However, a preemptive strike is expected to be difficult. Prior agreement between South Korea and the U.S. is essential for such an action. If clear signs of North Korean war provocations appear, South Korea and the U.S. would urgently hold the annual Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) and Military Committee Meeting (MCM) to assess the situation. Subsequently, the South Korean government would make recommendations to the president through the National Security Council (NSC) and seek approval for a preemptive strike. If the strike is conducted as an act of self-defense, the National Assembly would be notified, but approval would be obtained after the preemptive strike.

Some speculate that because President Trump's decision-making is on a knife-edge, he might bypass these procedures. Currently, the U.S. House of Representatives is protesting that it was not informed in advance about the strike on Commander Soleimani. According to AFP, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel (Democrat, New York) raised concerns, stating, "The airstrike targeting Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, in Iraq was conducted without any notification or consultation with Congress."

In response, President Trump has stated via Twitter that he had already made this clear and that if Iran retaliates, additional attacks will not cease.

On the 5th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump tweeted about Iran's retaliation threats, saying, "If they (Iran) attack us, we will strike back. If they attack again, which I strongly advise against, we will hit them harder than they have ever been hit before." He also stated, "This media post (tweet) serves as notification to Congress that if Iran attacks any American citizen or target, the U.S. will respond swiftly, fully, and probably in a disproportionate manner." The Twitter notice is an administrative notification to Congress. The 'disproportionate manner' mentioned by President Trump is interpreted to mean that if Iran attacks the U.S., the U.S. will retaliate more strongly.