[The Turbulent General Election] Jo Guk, Real Estate, North Korea... 3 Major Keywords Shaking the Election Landscape

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporters Lee Ji-eun and Jeon Jin-young] 'Cho Kuk, real estate, North Korea.' These are the three major keywords that will shake up the seat count in the 21st general election, just three and a half months away. They could emerge as key variables influencing changes in approval ratings. From the ruling party's perspective, these are adverse factors that could sway voter sentiment. From the opposition's perspective, these are factors that could overturn the current poll trends seemingly favoring the ruling party.

◆Cho Kuk risk, where will the centrist voters' hearts go? = The Cho Kuk issue is a powerful 'detonator.' As the political landscape between the Democratic Party and the Liberty Korea Party shifts into a 'prosecutor-opposition' versus 'pro-prosecutor' battle, there is even speculation that the general election will effectively become a fight between the prosecution and the Democratic Party. The court's judgment on former Minister of Justice Cho Kuk's family is said to be a major variable in political changes.

The ruling party has had a harsh experience going through the so-called 'Cho Kuk war.' President Moon Jae-in's approval ratings and the ruling party's support rates both declined. Especially, ruling party lawmakers in the strategic election regions of Busan, Ulsan, and Gyeongnam (PK) felt the chill of public sentiment.

The Blue House risk is ongoing. The prosecution is seeking links to the Blue House regarding allegations of cover-up in the investigation of former Busan Deputy Mayor Yoo Jae-soo and the alleged directive investigation involving former Ulsan Mayor Kim Ki-hyun. If the prosecution's investigation backfires, it could become a boon for the Democratic Party. Experts believe that ultimately, the party that captures the centrist voters' support will win the general election. Swing voters feeling fatigue might even choose a third political bloc.

Park Sang-byeong, a visiting professor at Inha University Graduate School of Policy, said, "Centrist voters who have seen the country divided between Gwanghwamun and Seocho-dong may throw a 'red card' to both the Democratic Party and the Liberty Korea Party and seek a new path," adding, "In the general election, it is necessary to present new policies or values to the public, but if the legal issues continue to fuel disputes between the prosecution and the ruling party, it will be difficult to capture the centrist vote."

The government announced the "Housing Market Stabilization Plan," which includes strengthening the comprehensive real estate tax on high-priced housing and regulating mortgage loans for apartments priced over 1.5 billion won in speculative and overheated speculation areas. On the 17th, a price list was posted at a real estate agency office in Songpa-gu, Seoul. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

◆If Gangnam housing prices rise, both real estate and education are 'failures' = Real estate is the 'Achilles' heel' of the current administration. The government and ruling party are tightening loans to recover unearned income and curb speculation. Despite announcing strong real estate regulations 17 times, Seoul real estate prices have risen more than 40% over the past two years. Even last month, much stronger measures than previous ones were introduced, but whether visible results will be achieved remains uncertain.

Even if stronger measures come out in the future, the possibility of a real estate crash is low. Kim Man-heum, director of the Korea Political Academy, said, "Even if real estate prices fall due to the December 16 measures, the increase from the beginning of the administration to now is already too large," adding, "Real estate prices will work against the ruling party."

If housing prices in major Gangnam school districts rise during the new semester or moving season, it will be a major blow to the administration. This would not only be a failure of real estate policy but could also be interpreted as a failure of education policies such as the abolition of special-purpose high schools and autonomous private high schools. Measures targeting homeowners, such as increased property taxes, are expected to strengthen 'class-based voting' tendencies. In major areas with high housing prices like Seoul and Gyeonggi, voters are likely to favor the opposition, while housing-poor lower-income citizens may vote for the ruling party.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

◆Frozen North Korea-US relations, will a breeze blow? = The North Korea issue is like a 'rugby ball' that can bounce unpredictably. The Moon administration has positioned itself as the 'driver of the Korean Peninsula,' taking on the role of mediator, but ultimately the key lies with North Korea and the United States. The North Korea-US relationship, which had a warm breeze due to the summit effect, has cooled sharply following the breakdown of the Hanoi summit. President Moon met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said, "The suspension of North Korea-US talks is never beneficial to North Korea," showing he has not yet let go of the mediation thread.

If North Korea and the US reach a compromise and produce results, it could be a positive factor for the ruling party's approval ratings. Although North Korea-US relations are heading toward their worst, US President Donald Trump, facing next year's general election, must maintain momentum in the talks to secure re-election. Trump has long cited the suspension of North Korea's nuclear tests and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launches as one of his major achievements, so he is expected to pay close attention to improving relations with North Korea. Lee Jong-hoon, a research professor at Myongji University, said, "Just as the US and China recently reached a phase one trade agreement, North Korea-US talks could also advance rapidly," adding, "If a North Korea-US summit occurs before the general election and concrete progress such as a first-phase agreement is made, the ruling party's approval ratings are likely to recover significantly."