"To Avoid Losses in Bitcoin Investments, Hold for at Least Three Years"

Bitwise Europe Price Analysis

Loss Probability Drops to 0.7% When Holding for Over Three Years

Short-Term Investments Face Higher Risk of Loss

A recent study has found that to avoid losses when investing in Bitcoin (BTC), investors should hold their assets for at least three years.

According to blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph on February 28 (local time), Andrei Dragos, Head of Research at Bitwise Europe, analyzed Bitcoin's price trends from mid-2010 to early 2026. The results showed that the probability of a loss drops sharply as the holding period increases.

Specifically, the probability of incurring a loss falls to 0.7% when holding Bitcoin for at least three years. The longer the holding period, the lower the likelihood of a loss, dropping to 0.2% for a five-year holding period, and statistically, there were no cases of loss for a ten-year holding period.

In contrast, the probability of a loss increases significantly for short-term investments. For same-day trading, the probability of a loss reached 47.1%. This probability remained high at 44.7% for a one-week holding period and 43.2% for a one-month holding period. Even with a one-year holding period, the probability of a loss was 24.3%. Notably, those who have held Bitcoin for six months to one year recently have recorded an average loss of 35%, while those holding for one to two years have seen a 15% loss. This demonstrates that long-term holding is a strategy for minimizing losses amid market volatility.

Recently, Bitcoin has been trading at around $65,000, which is about 50% lower than the all-time high recorded in October last year. Given that the average price three to five years ago was about $34,780, investors who purchased Bitcoin during that period and have held it for more than three years are likely still in profit despite the recent plunge.

There are mixed opinions regarding the future outlook for Bitcoin. Global brokerage firm Bernstein has predicted that Bitcoin's price could rise to $150,000 by 2026, while Standard Chartered expects it to recover to $100,000 by the end of the year. Investment analyst Timothy Peterson also forecast that Bitcoin is likely to surpass $122,000 by early next year. On the other hand, some argue that if negative factors persist, Bitcoin could fall further to $30,000.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.