I Went All In Trusting the Bull Market... Will KOSPI Be Safe After US Strikes on Iran? [Weekend Money]

US and Israel Launch Massive Airstrikes on Iran
Oil Prices Surge, Nasdaq Futures Drop
Short-term Correction Expected, Long-term Impact Uncertain

On the 27th, when the KOSPI index started the session bearish for the first time in seven trading days, the exchange rate, KOSPI, and KOSDAQ indices were displayed on the index status board at the Hana Bank dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul. 2026.02.27 Photo by Dongjoo Yoon

There are forecasts that the South Korean stock market will inevitably face short-term negative impacts as the United States and Israel launch large-scale attacks on Iran. In particular, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked and international oil prices become unstable, market volatility in Korea is expected to increase further. However, some predict that if the situation is resolved quickly, a market rebound could also come swiftly.

US and Israel Launch Large-Scale Airstrikes on Iran; Oil Prices Surge, Nasdaq Futures Drop

According to Investing.com and other sources, as of 9:33 a.m. on March 2, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures were trading at $71.67 per barrel, up 6.94% from the previous trading day. While the Korean stock market was closed on this day, Japan's Nikkei index, which was open, was trading 2.31% lower than the previous session. US Dow and Nasdaq futures were also down more than 1%.

The stock market decline and surge in oil prices are attributed to the airstrikes by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28. Through their large-scale attack, the United States and Israel removed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Since then, the United States and Israel, as well as Iran, have been exchanging long-range attacks using missiles, drones, and aircraft.

Foreigners are watching related news at Incheon Airport on the 1st as tensions in the Middle East rapidly escalate due to attacks by the United States and Israel, causing cancellations of routes such as those bound for Dubai. Photo by Yonhap News Agency

Experts believe that the US airstrikes on Iran will have a short-term negative impact on global financial markets. In particular, if the Strait of Hormuz, a key international oil route, is blocked, a blow to the stock market would be unavoidable. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, serving as a strategic hub in the Middle East and a major route for global oil transport.

Some 27% of the world’s maritime oil trade passes through this strait. Of its total width of 55 kilometers, the navigable area for oil tankers is less than 10 kilometers wide and entirely within Iranian territorial waters. South Korea imports 70.7% of its crude oil and 20.4% of its liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Middle East, so an obstruction of the strait would sharply increase energy supply concerns. The Korea International Trade Association expressed concern, stating, "If Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, there is no clear alternative for our import and export logistics."

A Short-Term Market Correction Is Seen as Inevitable, but Long-Term Outlook Remains Uncertain

Suh Sangyoung, a researcher at Mirae Asset Securities, stated, "Major investment firms argue that if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, there is a short-term risk of oil prices rising by an additional $10 to $15 per barrel," adding, "Such a spike in energy prices will act as downward economic pressure, decreasing the real GDP of major oil-importing countries, including South Korea, by about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points."

Suh further explained, "Therefore, with risk aversion spreading in the short term, the stock market is expected to remain weak for the time being," and predicted, "Short-term volatility is inevitable, and if the rise in international oil prices continues, downward volatility will only increase."

Han Jiyeong, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, pointed out, "As US President Trump mentioned that attacks will continue throughout this week, the likelihood of an early resolution seems low," and said, "An expansion in price volatility is unavoidable."

However, Han also noted, "Looking at past cases of Middle East wars, on average, the stock market initially declined right after the outbreak of war but soon recovered the losses," explaining, "As long as the situation does not escalate to the level of the Second Middle East War that was triggered by the Suez Crisis, the stock price shock caused by war tended to diminish over time."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.