'Theocracy Succession' 35% vs 'Establishing Democratic Government' 25%... Forbes Predicts Four Scenarios [US-Iran Airstrikes]

35% Chance of Continued Retaliatory Attacks if Cleric Succeeds as Supreme Leader

Citizen Groups' Organizational Capacity Key Variable in 25% Democratic Government Scenario

On March 1, Forbes, the American business magazine, presented four major scenarios regarding the political situation in Iran following the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a result of US and Israeli airstrikes. Forbes predicted that it would take at least 60 to 90 days to stabilize the situation, regardless of which path events follow.

Smoke is rising in Tehran, which was bombed on the 28th of last month (local time). Photo by AFP.

The scenario considered most likely is that another cleric succeeds to the position of Supreme Leader, thereby maintaining the existing theocratic regime (35% probability). In this case, the new leader is highly likely to rally the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and continue retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and US military bases in the Middle East.

The second scenario, with a 30% probability, involves internal factions within the IRGC and regional warlords splitting and engaging in a prolonged power struggle. Forbes analyzed that if such a power struggle accelerates political turmoil in Iran, a sharp rise in international oil prices will be inevitable.

The third scenario, with a 25% probability, envisions Iranian citizens taking advantage of the absence of the Khamenei regime to occupy the government and establish a democratic administration. However, it is assessed that the organizational capacity of citizen groups is weak, which may make it difficult to form an interim government. In this vacuum, there is a possibility that the IRGC could suppress citizens and regain control.

The last scenario, with a 10% probability, is the complete collapse of Iran's state functions. While this is considered the least likely scenario, neighboring countries are known to have prepared for it on the assumption of a worst-case situation, such as a massive influx of refugees.

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.