[Good Morning Market] KOSPI Poised to Test 6,000 Amid Volatility from U.S. Reciprocal Tariffs

On the 23rd, the KOSPI is expected to attempt to reach the 6,000-point level despite uncertainties such as the U.S. reciprocal tariff issue.

Last Friday on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,625.97, up 230.81 points (0.47%) from the previous session. The S&P 500 Index finished at 6,909.51, up 47.62 points (0.69%), and the Nasdaq Composite Index ended the session at 22,886.07, up 203.34 points (0.90%).

Yonhap News Agency

Despite ongoing instability in the artificial intelligence (AI) private market, the gains are interpreted as being driven by news that the U.S. Supreme Court ruled President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariffs illegal, and that expectations for a favorable memory market outlook for major companies have strengthened.

The ruling that reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) were illegal has helped to reduce tariff-related uncertainty, and last week’s stock market reaction was positive. However, some still believe that Trump-related uncertainty has not completely disappeared. This is because President Trump can impose tariffs through alternative routes such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and Section 122 of the Trade Act, in addition to IEEPA. That said, there is also a view that the market has developed a learning effect after being exposed multiple times to tariff risks, and that it is unlikely Trump will stick to his previous course ahead of the midterm elections.

This week, earnings releases by AI companies such as Nvidia and Salesforce are also scheduled. After Nvidia’s earnings announcement on the 25th, whether there will be changes to this year’s earnings estimates for domestic semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix is expected to be a key focus.

As the spread of Agent AI adoption is acting as a headwind for the software-as-a-service (SaaS) industry, changes in profitability and guidance at software company Salesforce, which is scheduled to report on the same day, are also expected to be an important point to watch. With concerns mounting over negative growth at set manufacturers such as PC makers due to rising memory prices, the earnings of PC companies such as HP on the 24th and Dell on the 26th are also drawing attention.

In the domestic stock market, investors are expected to focus on whether the momentum behind last Friday’s surge to KOSPI 5,800 will continue. Starting today, there is also a possibility that the index will attempt to build on last week’s momentum and move into the 6,000-point range.

Han Ji-young, researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “Trump’s tariffs, geopolitical noise, and technical overheating pressure following last week’s surge are likely to create a tug-of-war over supply and demand around the KOSPI 6,000-point level,” but added, “However, index valuation pressure is still not significant, and given that the earnings momentum advantage over other markets is strengthening, it is appropriate to maintain a strategy of increasing the allocation to domestic equities.”

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.