[Choi Junyoung's World+]A Distant Year... America’s Upheaval and the Collapse of World Order

International Order Shaken by Trump's Election
Tariff Pressure Reveals Overwhelming U.S. Influence
Unilateral U.S. Declaration Ends Middle East Conflict
Korea Must Seek Solutions Amid a New Global Order

2025 will be remembered as a year of upheaval. Donald Trump, who was inaugurated as President of the United States in January, seemed to view overturning the existing order as his mission. Although the United States is the world's most powerful nation, few expected that a single president could bring about such sweeping changes. Previously established treaties between nations and long-standing international norms proved meaningless in the face of his actions. Instead of abolishing free trade agreements (FTAs), he imposed tariffs, and no country dared to object to or resist his demands for hundreds of billions of dollars in cash payments. This year, we were all reminded of the sheer power of the United States and the immense value of the American market.

2025 was a year when war and peace intersected. The conflict in the Middle East, which began with a surprise attack on Israel by the Palestinian militant group Hamas, escalated into a war between Iran and Israel. The United States, reluctantly supporting Israel, destroyed Iran's underground nuclear facilities using bombers and bunker-buster bombs-targets that Israel could not strike on its own. Immediately after, the United States declared the war over. Although none of the parties involved agreed, both Iran and Israel had no choice but to accept President Trump's declaration. Tens of thousands lost their lives, but President Trump’s forceful intervention brought an end to the Gaza war, which had seemed endless. At a peace agreement ceremony in Egypt, world leaders were quick to praise President Trump.

The changes in the United States sent waves of anxiety across the Atlantic to Europe. The notion of a Europe without America-one that must defend itself-had previously been only theoretical, but it suddenly became a reality. Even after the outbreak of the Ukraine war in 2022, European countries had been slow to act, but President Trump's warnings and pressure prompted them to significantly increase their defense budgets. What could not be solved with money was manpower. Ultimately, both France and Germany reintroduced vague forms of conscription. There were doubts about whether Europe, which had increased welfare spending by selling tanks and fighter jets, could now reduce welfare to purchase weapons, but the prospect of a U.S. withdrawal made the impossible possible.

US President Donald Trump (right) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are shaking hands at a press conference held on the 28th (local time) at the Mar-a-Lago Resort in Palm Beach, Florida. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

2025 was also the year when globalization unmistakably began to come to an end. The essence of globalization was the free movement of people, goods, and capital. It was believed that this benefited everyone. Countries competed to lower barriers and enable faster, greater flows. While some countries expressed dissatisfaction, it was only a matter of speed, not direction. Everyday conveniences such as visa-free travel, overseas direct purchases, and foreign stock investments were all products of globalization.

However, the movement of people and goods has now become increasingly difficult. Physical barriers and institutional measures to restrict movement are being reinstated. A 15% tariff has become the norm. Now, only capital remains. It is becoming increasingly uncertain how much longer we will be able to invest in U.S. stocks and bonds and expect dividends, interest, and gains.

Although it seemed that everything was collapsing, the U.S.-China summit held in South Korea brought some change to the situation. Both countries agreed to take a step back and avoid further escalation. It was a one-year truce. While it appeared that both sides had made concessions, in reality, the United States conceded much more. The various export controls imposed by China inflicted significant pain on the United States.

In contrast, China was well-prepared for the pressure from the United States. Advocating self-sufficiency, China stockpiled raw materials and food and increased domestic production. It invested in the localization of various technologies to reduce dependence on imports. These measures might not work in most countries, but with a population of 1.4 billion and strong centralized resource allocation, they were effective in China. During the one-year truce, both sides are working to address their own weaknesses and find ways to exploit the other's vulnerabilities.

Meanwhile, even as the United States and China reached a compromise, the war in Ukraine continued. Few believed President Trump's pledge to end the war immediately after taking office, but no one expected that, a year into his presidency, there would be no change at all. The world was shocked by negotiations that excluded Ukraine itself. Nevertheless, through enduring various humiliations and persuading the United States, and with European countries aware that they could be next if Ukraine fell, President Trump has begun to step back from his previous stance and is now working as a mediator to bring the war to an end. However, President Trump has now realized that Vladimir Putin, President of Russia, who has gained little, cannot accept either a truce or peace.

Even amid the major currents of great power rivalry and war, ordinary people's concerns have centered on the cost of living. The rise in expenses, especially soaring rents, has made many things that were once taken for granted impossible. The desire to bring various costs down to reasonable levels led to the election of Zohran Mamdani, a self-proclaimed socialist advocating for affordable living, as mayor of New York-the very heart of capitalism. On the other hand, massive investments have continued in the hope that artificial intelligence (AI) will shape the future. However, as AI fails to deliver rising returns on investment, many are reminded of the bursting of the IT bubble in 2000. Whether the bubble bursts or not, 2026 will be a year fraught with challenges either way.

As the existing order collapses amid rapid changes in the United States, we must consider what new strategies we will use to face a changing world. The success model that worked so well for us in the era of globalization is no longer suited to reality. In the new space created by the collapse of what once seemed like an eternal order, we are faced with the task of finding new opportunities and adapting once again. As we recover from the shock, 2026 will be a year when we must look at the world with new eyes and strive for the future once more.

Choi Junyoung, Senior Expert at Yulchon LLC (Global Law and Policy)