Jin Joong-kwon: "Lee Junseok Is a Little Trump, Han Donghoon Has Excellent Political Instincts" [Current Affairs Show]

Jang Donghyuk Unlikely to Change Course
Kim Minseok vs. Jeong Cheongrae Rivalry Already Taking Shape
Lee Junseok's Issue Is Populism, Han Donghoon's Issue Is Inclusiveness

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show" (Mon-Fri, 4-5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: PD Lee Miri

■ Guest: Professor Jin Joong-kwon, Dongyang University (December 23)

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. Welcome to "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show." Today, we are joined by Professor Jin Joong-kwon from Dongyang University to hear his sharp critiques on the recent political situation. Thank you for taking the time to join us despite your busy schedule.

Jin Joong-kwon: Yes, hello.

So Jongseop: I'd like to ask for your overall assessment of the current political landscape.

Jin Joong-kwon: It's a mess. Both sides are in disarray, and it doesn't seem to be a temporary issue. Abnormality has become the new normal. Both parties are being consumed by their hardline supporters, so the parties are unable to function properly and are essentially held hostage by external fandoms. This has led to a situation where both sides are locked in a fierce standoff. In the process, the National Assembly has lost its original character of resolving issues through compromise and agreement; it has become a battlefield of us versus them. The ideological divide has become deeply polarized. As politics has turned into a kind of game, actual decision-making is no longer rational but is moving in strange directions, leading to dysfunction. The social cost of this will likely continue to rise.

On the 23rd, Professor Jin Joong-kwon of Dongyang University appeared on "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show" at The Asia Business Daily headquarters, interviewing with political specialist So Jongseop. Photo by Huh Younghan

So Jongseop: Do you expect this phenomenon to continue for the time being?

Jin Joong-kwon: That's right. It seems to have become a paradigm. It's not a problem unique to Korea-it's the same in the United States. What's characteristic of both countries is that IT technology is highly advanced, and digital technology is now reshaping policy paradigms. Politics is increasingly resembling a game. In games, nothing else matters. There's no need to take sides; you just use your skills to defeat the opponent and excite the crowd. These tendencies are especially pronounced in the US and Korea because of their advanced IT sectors, but similar phenomena are occurring in other countries as well, albeit to varying degrees. This is an example of the characteristics of digital technology being used in a reactionary, wasteful, and destructive way.

So Jongseop: According to your analysis, it seems that it will be difficult for the public to find hope in politics for quite some time.

Jin Joong-kwon: That's right. Sometimes I think it will take a catastrophe for people to come to their senses. The problems aren't visible right now. Even judicial reform isn't visible at the moment. But I believe there are already many victims being created. In the past, indictment and conviction rates dropped sharply, which ultimately means that criminals are running rampant and can't be stopped. Crime victims are left to suffer alone. As this continues to grow, people will eventually realize that the so-called judicial reforms were a sham, designed only to protect those in power from going to jail, and that the public is bearing the cost of a broken criminal justice system. Only when this becomes clear might things change, but for now, that's not the case.

So Jongseop: President Lee Jaemyung's approval rating has been in the low to mid-50% range recently. How do you assess his overall performance?

Jin Joong-kwon: At first, I would have given him an A0, but now it's more like a B0. Over the past month, it feels like things have rapidly deteriorated and collapsed.

So Jongseop: In what respects do you see it that way?

Jin Joong-kwon: In terms of language and ongoing issues. Initially, there was a base effect-President Yoon Suk-yeol performed so poorly that even average performance looked outstanding. Early on, issues like the Korea-US tariff negotiations were handled smoothly, which brought stability and was highly regarded. But after that, he started using his power to solve his own problems.

So Jongseop: Legal issues?

Jin Joong-kwon: Now I give him a B0, but I think it will continue to decline. The honeymoon period is over, and the base effect won't last forever. He's resorting to showmanship, which is causing ongoing problems. As these accumulate, his ratings will keep dropping. On the economic front, nothing has been resolved, and as a result, the exchange rate has become volatile.

When Lee Jaemyung was party leader, he said that if the exchange rate hit 1,400, the country would collapse. But now it has surpassed that. This isn't normal-it indicates that the Korean economy has become very vulnerable, but I haven't heard any countermeasures. There should be substantial policies addressing major issues, but instead, we're only seeing minor tricks. I don't think this will last long. Ironically, what is preventing his approval from dropping further is the poor performance of the People Power Party. They are so ineffective that they are providing a floor for his ratings.

So Jongseop: Live broadcasts of ministry work reports and similar events have been touted by the presidential office as having positive effects. What is your view on these work reports?

Jin Joong-kwon: It's a bad sign. The very claim that these are having positive effects is itself a bad omen. I watched them once or twice and thought, this can't last. It will end up like Yoon Suk-yeol's doorstepping. Work reports are not meant to be entertaining-they exist for getting work done. Even if it looks frustrating, there are reasons why officials act that way. Society is made up of people with diverse and conflicting interests, and the current system is the result of accumulated experience over a long time, so things can't be resolved instantly. Pushing for quick fixes is the wrong approach. In their attempt to make it entertaining, they're calling it "Jamflix" and turning it into entertainment.

As a result, instead of showing people working seriously and cameras reporting honestly, the reality is staged for the camera. It becomes dramatized. For drama, you need a clear good-versus-evil narrative: the president is shown as hardworking, while civil servants are depicted as lazy, irresponsible, and inert.

So the president scolds them, and the public identifies with him, feeling a sense of satisfaction and political efficacy. But problems keep arising-many things don't make sense. For example, the Hwandangogi issue revealed the president's level of cultural sophistication. He genuinely believes in it, and it's not the first time-he said similar things as Gyeonggi governor. There are people who claim Korea's history is 30,000 years old, and he suggests we should at least listen to them. This is the same context. He's aligned with those people, who are frauds. But by believing and repeating their claims, he's treating things like Hwandangogi as legitimate literature.

So Jongseop: The minister apologized for the "Bean GPT" incident as well.

The President Should Not Micromanage-It Can Undermine the System

Jin Joong-kwon: The president should not micromanage. The people in each department know best. How could he know everything? Yet he asks trivial questions, quizzes ministers, and scolds them if they can't answer, as if he prepared in advance. That's not the point. For example, with Incheon Airport, the real issue is whether to expand it or not. By calling it "Jamflix," they're essentially turning it into entertainment. I think this will inevitably be exposed. When the president speaks out, he is the appointing authority. Subordinates have to comply, even with unreasonable demands, and in the process, the system is damaged. I hope he restrains himself from such actions.

So Jongseop: There is already talk of a rivalry between Prime Minister Kim Min-seok and Party Leader Jeong Cheongrae over the party leadership next year. What is your view?

Jin Joong-kwon: There aren't any clear post-Lee Jaemyung figures emerging. The fight is between President Lee Jaemyung and Leader Jeong Cheongrae. But the president has only been in office for a year, so the party leader can't confront him head-on. I think Jeong Cheongrae revealed his ambitions too early. As a result, he took a hit. In the end, he'll probably be pushed out. Next year will be interesting to watch.

In fact, I think the cabinet meetings are now like Kim Eo-jun's News Factory-that's where the agenda is set. Once the agenda is decided there, Democratic Party lawmakers start talking about it, then the party leader, and finally the presidential office reacts. Kim Min-seok and Jeong Cheongrae have very different backgrounds. Jeong Cheongrae grew through direct engagement with the public since the "Naggomsu" era, while Kim Min-seok was more of an establishment figure, so he isn't close to the party's hardline supporters. The key question is, who votes? It's the party members, which is why the "one person, one vote" issue arises. This has led to a head-to-head contest, but the president's word carries enormous weight. Right now, Jeong Cheongrae has to endure and bow to the president, but there has been ongoing conflict.

From President Lee Jaemyung's perspective, it's clear. Kim Min-seok is his ally, and to ensure a stable second half of his term, he needs his own person in the party. Lee Jaemyung himself was an outsider who came into the party. For Prime Minister Jeong, his only support comes from the hardliners. So he has to keep them politically excited to maintain their support, which leads to risky moves.

Professor Jin Joong-kwon of Dongyang University analyzed that Prime Minister Kim Min-seok's candidacy for party leader next year is a predetermined step. Photo by Hyohang Han

So Jongseop: Given the power dynamics within the ruling party, do you think it's unlikely that Leader Jeong Cheongrae will be re-elected in August next year?

Jin Joong-kwon: It's hard to say. It depends on how things are handled. Ultimately, it's up to the party members. Jokingly, I say it depends on Kim Eo-jun-how he shapes public opinion. For now, Jeong Cheongrae is more popular with the party members. The problem is that the president's support for Kim Min-seok is so blatant. This time, it was shockingly overt, especially with the way Jeong Won-oh was promoted. I didn't expect it to be this obvious. The president can go all out for Kim Min-seok, which will confuse supporters. In that case, Jeong Cheongrae needs to disrupt the confrontation, saying Kim Min-seok isn't enough and that he can support the president better. He shouldn't keep clashing. But I don't know what he'll do. One thing is certain: under a presidential system, if the ruling party leader confronts the president, it's political suicide.

So Jongseop: There's widespread speculation that Jeong Won-oh, the district mayor, has been politically chosen as the Democratic Party's candidate for Seoul mayor.

Jin Joong-kwon: He has been chosen. In the past, the Democratic Party usually brought in outsiders to win the Seoul mayoralty. This time, while he's not a complete outsider, he is a former administrative official. Because he has a different background, he could pose a threat to Oh Se-hoon.

So Jongseop: Ultimately, do you think next year's local election candidates and the ruling party's landscape will be shaped by the president's decisions?

The Ruling Party's Local Election Landscape Will Be Shaped by the President's Decisions

Jin Joong-kwon: That's how I see it. It's absolute. President Lee Jaemyung has already established his control-he purged the non-mainstream faction through a brutal power struggle. Now, as president, his authority is even greater than before.

Jin Joong-kwon: Looking at the People Power Party, they're not in a position to contest an election. It could be a repeat of 2018. It will become a regional party, a TK-based party like the former United Liberal Democrats.

So Jongseop: The "Unification Church special prosecutor" issue is becoming more visible.

Jin Joong-kwon: I think negotiations between the Unification Church and the administration have concluded. The reason it was exposed was as a warning: "If you attack us, we can retaliate." But when the leader appeared in court, he stayed silent. That means negotiations are over. So that's one issue. Another major issue is the president himself. His name has come up. The president's side has said they want to meet directly.

The interesting question is: did they meet or not? Even if they did, it's not a legal problem, but it's a huge political issue. I don't think the presidential office can answer the question of whether they met. If they did, the other side would have documented it with photos. I think the VIP did meet them.

The Jang Dong-hyuk Leadership Cannot Continue

So Jongseop: Let's talk about the People Power Party. You're quite critical of Leader Jang Dong-hyuk, aren't you?

Jin Joong-kwon: That leadership can't continue. He's essentially a 1.5-term lawmaker without a real base in the party, yet he became party leader. Who made him leader? The hardliners. He has no base outside of them, so he can't break away. That's why he can't apologize for the coup, can't reflect, and must oppose impeachment.

Professor Jin Joong-kwon of Dongyang University saw almost no possibility of a change in direction for CEO Jang Dong-hyuk. Photo by Hyunghan Heo

So Jongseop: Is it difficult for him to change his stance?

Jin Joong-kwon: The moment he supports or acknowledges impeachment, his supporters will abandon him. He'll be left isolated. He's existentially bound to them, but still has to contest elections. So he has to pretend to be moderate, leaking ambiguous statements to the media about turning left or making a leftward shift, but it's nonsense. He can't do it.

It's structurally determined. He has no choice. Also, his perception of reality is flawed. Where did the People Power Party's crisis come from? From the public's perspective, most lawmakers were absent when martial law was lifted, and they opposed impeachment. After being impeached, they barely apologized. They aren't reflecting and are repeating the same mistakes. But they see the problem as internal enemies. They blame those who represent the public's perspective, thinking that if they purge them, the conservatives can unite and expand. It's a fantasy.

So Jongseop: So the diagnosis itself is completely wrong?

Jin Joong-kwon: It's a pipe dream. The party has been impeached twice. Even a mouse learns from trial and error, but these people have less intelligence than rodents. If that's the case, extinction is inevitable. They're probably planning to purge the so-called Han Dong-hoon faction in the upcoming local elections by replacing the ethics committee chair, but have hit a roadblock. They're debating whether to push ahead, but most of the party is opposed, not just the Han Dong-hoon faction. They're in a serious dilemma. But one thing is clear: they will never apologize or reflect. They can't change their course-if they do, they're finished.

So Jongseop: Former leader Han Dong-hoon says that, despite various issues erupting within the ruling bloc, people keep trying to fight with him.

Jang Dong-hyuk's Mindset Is the Same as Yoon Suk-yeol's

Jin Joong-kwon: I answered Han Dong-hoon's question-they really think that way. They see a single internal enemy as more dangerous. Who is that? It's Han Dong-hoon. So they attack him. Whenever there are issues unfavorable to the ruling party or advantageous to the opposition, they try to cover them up. The only people they fight sincerely are Han Dong-hoon and his allies. They say, "Let's not attack each other internally," but they're the ones doing it. They truly believe this.

So Jongseop: Is there any force that could bring change to the Jang Dong-hyuk leadership?

Jin Joong-kwon: I don't think so. They're all opportunists, watching to see which side to align with. There are no courageous people. The first-term lawmakers got there by being sycophantic. It's the same in both parties. Anyone who spoke out was purged. No one is stepping up to change the situation; they're just watching and waiting to see where to align themselves.

Jang Dong-hyuk's mindset is very similar to Yoon Suk-yeol's. Yoon also said, "We'll win the Gangseo district election, bring the Busan Expo, win the general election," but after losing, nothing changed. They never admit fault.

So Jongseop: What do you think about the present and future of Lee Jun-seok and Han Dong-hoon?

Lee Jun-seok's Problem Is Populism, Han Dong-hoon's Is Inclusiveness

Jin Joong-kwon: Lee Jun-seok seems to represent those in their 30s and 40s. In my view, he's a bit like a "Little Trump." Trump emerged in the US, and in Korea, there's a similar 20s-30s right-wing trend. It's a very conservative movement, different from old-guard right-wingers. The left needs to be wary of this new generation, and Lee Jun-seok is its leading figure.

Lee Jun-seok's problem is populism-attacking the disabled, women, the elderly, and Chinese people. It's concerning, but it's an inevitable trend. The 50s and 60s generation is the so-called democratization generation. They don't buy into this. They say, "You got all the benefits. The Roh Tae-woo administration gave you all the apartments. What did you give us? You're making it impossible for us to buy apartments." This is a strong, emotional grievance that needs to be handled carefully. It's hard to predict the future.

As for former leader Han Dong-hoon, I've debated him three times. We couldn't reach agreement, but he brought up perspectives I hadn't considered and was very diligent. He never used inflammatory rhetoric and argued rationally. It was enjoyable to debate him. While our positions got closer, we never fully agreed, but I felt enriched and more flexible. He has strong political instincts. He gets to the essence of issues-he's smart. I said the People Power Party lacks brains, but Han Dong-hoon has a brain.

The downside is whether he has the inclusiveness to embrace people. He doesn't seem to, at least not yet. A leader should have some flaws, human charm, and even show vulnerability, but he seems too uptight. His future depends on whether he can develop political inclusiveness. In my view, apart from Han Dong-hoon and Oh Se-hoon, there aren't any other notable figures in the party. Though he's under pressure now, in the long run, he's one of the few who could save the conservatives. He's a fact-based politician, which is rare among conservatives, and I think he'll eventually carve out his own space because he's an irreplaceable character.

So Jongseop: We'll leave it there. Thank you for your insights today.

Jin Joong-kwon: Thank you. Thank you.