Jin Joong-kwon: "Lee Junseok Is a Little Trump, Han Donghoon Has Excellent Political Instincts" [Current Affairs Show]

Jang Donghyuk Unlikely to Change Course
Kim Minseok vs. Jeong Cheongrae Rivalry Already Taking Shape
Lee Junseok's Issue Is Populism, Han Donghoon's Issue Is Inclusiveness

■ Broadcast: The Asia Business Daily's "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show" (Monday to Friday, 4-5 PM)

■ Host: Political Specialist So Jongseop ■ Director: Producer Lee Miri

■ Guest: Professor Jin Joong-kwon, Dongyang University (December 23)

So Jongseop: Hello, everyone. Welcome to "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show." Today, we have Professor Jin Joong-kwon from Dongyang University with us to hear his sharp analysis on the current political situation. Thank you for joining us despite your busy schedule.

Jin Joong-kwon: Yes, hello.

So Jongseop: I am curious about your overall perspective on the recent political landscape.

Jin Joong-kwon: It's a mess. Both sides are in disarray, and it doesn't seem to be a temporary issue. Abnormality has become the norm. Both parties have been consumed by their hardline supporters and are now held hostage by external fandoms, unable to function properly as political parties. As a result, there is a fierce standoff, and the parliament has lost its original role of resolving issues through consensus and compromise. Now, the legislature has become a battleground of "us versus them." The ideological polarization is severe. Politics has turned into a kind of game board, so actual governance is not carried out rationally but rather in strange directions, leading to dysfunction. The social cost of this will likely continue to rise.

On the 23rd, Professor Jin Joong-kwon of Dongyang University appeared on "So Jongseop's Current Affairs Show" at The Asia Business Daily headquarters, interviewing with political specialist So Jongseop. Photo by Huh Younghan

So Jongseop: Do you think this phenomenon will continue for the time being?

Jin Joong-kwon: That's right. It seems to have become a paradigm. It's not just a problem unique to our country. The same is true in the United States. What both countries have in common is highly developed IT technology, and digital technology is now reshaping policy paradigms. Politics is increasingly resembling a game. In games, nothing else matters-you just use your skills to defeat your opponent and excite your supporters. Such tendencies are especially pronounced in the United States and Korea because of their advanced IT infrastructure. Although there are some differences, similar phenomena are occurring in other countries as well. This is an example of the characteristics of digital technology being used in a reactionary, consumptive, and destructive way.

So Jongseop: According to your analysis, it seems the public will find it difficult to have hope in politics for quite some time.

Jin Joong-kwon: That's right. Sometimes I think it will take a catastrophe for people to come to their senses. At the moment, the problems are not visible. Even judicial reform is not visible right now. But there must be a growing number of victims. In the past, indictment and conviction rates dropped sharply, which means criminals are running rampant and cannot be stopped. Crime victims are probably suffering in silence. If this continues, people will eventually realize that the so-called judicial reform was a sham, designed to protect the interests of a select few and keep themselves out of jail, at the expense of the entire national criminal justice system. When it becomes clear that the public is bearing the brunt of this, perhaps then things will change, but for now, that's not the case.

So Jongseop: President Lee Jaemyung's administration-recent approval ratings are in the low to mid-50% range. How do you evaluate his overall performance?

Jin Joong-kwon: In the beginning, I would have given him an A0, but now it's more like a B0. In the past month, I get the sense that things have rapidly deteriorated and are falling apart.

So Jongseop: In what aspects do you see this?

Jin Joong-kwon: His language, for one, and there have been many ongoing issues. Initially, there was a base effect-President Yoon Suk-yeol performed so poorly that even mediocrity looked impressive by comparison. Early on, he also handled issues like the Korea-US tariff negotiations smoothly, which contributed to stability and was positively received. But after that, he started using his power to solve his own problems.

So Jongseop: Legal issues?

Jin Joong-kwon: Now I give him a B0, but I think it will keep dropping. The honeymoon period is over, and the base effect won't last forever. There is a lot of showmanship, which is causing ongoing problems. As these issues accumulate, his approval rating will likely continue to fall. On top of that, no economic problems have been solved. As a result, the exchange rate has been volatile.

When Lee Jaemyung was party leader, he said that if the exchange rate hit 1,400 won, the country would collapse. But now it has surpassed that level. This is not normal; it indicates that the Korean economy has become extremely fragile, and I haven't heard any countermeasures. On major issues, there should be concrete measures, but instead, we're only seeing minor tricks. I don't think this will last long. Ironically, what is preventing his approval from falling further is the poor performance of the People Power Party. Their incompetence is providing a floor of support for him.

So Jongseop: The presidential office has claimed that live broadcasts of ministry work reports and similar initiatives have had a positive effect. What is your view on these work reports?

Jin Joong-kwon: It's a sign of decline. The very claim that they're seeing positive effects is itself a bad omen. I've watched a couple of times, and I don't think this will last. It reminds me of Yoon Suk-yeol's doorstepping. Work reports are meant for getting things done-they're not supposed to be entertaining. Even if it looks frustrating, there are reasons why officials act that way. Society is made up of people with diverse and often conflicting interests, and the current system is the result of accumulated experience. Problems can't be solved quickly and easily. Pushing officials too hard is not the answer. In an effort to make things entertaining, they're talking about things like "Jamflix." It's become entertainment.

As a result, instead of honestly reporting on people working seriously in reality, the camera becomes the focus, and people perform for the camera. This dramatizes the process. For drama, you need a clear good-versus-evil narrative: a hardworking president versus lazy, irresponsible, and uncooperative civil servants.

So the president scolds them, and the public identifies with him, feeling a sense of exhilaration and political efficacy. But there are constant problems-many things simply don't make sense. For example, the Hwandangogi issue revealed the president's level of cultural literacy. He genuinely believes in that. It's not the first time-he said similar things as governor of Gyeonggi Province, claiming Korea's history is 30,000 years old. He suggests we should listen to those making such absurd claims. This time, it's the same context. He's aligned with those people. They're frauds, but he believes them and says things like Hwandangogi is a legitimate historical document.

So Jongseop: The minister also apologized for the "Bean GPT" incident.

The President Should Not Micromanage Everything, or the System May Collapse

Jin Joong-kwon: The president should not micromanage everything. The people in each department know best. How could he possibly know everything? But he asks trivial questions, like a quiz show, and scolds anyone who can't answer, as if he came prepared. For example, if it's about Incheon Airport, the main issue is whether to expand the airport or not. By turning it into "Jamflix," he's essentially making it entertainment.But I think this will eventually backfire.When the president speaks, he is the appointing authority. So even if what he says doesn't make sense, civil servants have to go along with it, and the system breaks down. I wish he would refrain from such behavior.

So Jongseop: There is an assessment that a rivalry has already formed between Prime Minister Kim Minseok and Party Leader Jeong Cheongrae over the party leadership next year. What is your view?

Jin Joong-kwon: There are no clear post-Lee Jaemyung figures. President Lee Jaemyung and Party Leader Jeong Cheongrae are fighting for this position. But it's only the president's first year; at this stage, the ruling party leader can't confront the president. I think Jeong Cheongrae revealed his ambitions too early. He took a hit for it. In the end, he'll probably be pushed out. Next year should be interesting.

In fact, I think the cabinet meetings are now like Kim Eo-jun's News Factory-that's where the real decisions are made. Once the agenda is set there, Democratic Party lawmakers start talking about it, then the party leader takes it up, and the presidential office eventually accepts it. Kim Minseok and Jeong Cheongrae have had different career paths. Jeong Cheongrae grew through direct engagement with the public since the "Naggomsu" era, while Kim Minseok was more of a behind-the-scenes figure. So he's not close with the hardline supporters. The question is: who votes? It's the party members, which is why the "one person, one vote" issue arises. So the real contest is between the two, but the president's word carries a lot of weight. For now, Jeong Cheongrae has to endure and bow to the president, but there has been ongoing conflict.

From President Lee Jaemyung's perspective, it's clear. Kim Minseok is his ally, and to ensure stability in the latter half of his term, he needs his own person in the party. Lee Jaemyung himself came from outside the party. For Prime Minister Jeong, his only support comes from the hardliners. So he has to keep them politically excited to maintain their support, which leads to risky moves.

Professor Jin Joong-kwon of Dongyang University analyzed that Prime Minister Kim Min-seok's candidacy for party leader next year is a predetermined step. Photo by Hyohang Han

So Jongseop: Given the power dynamics within the ruling party, do you think it will be difficult for Jeong Cheongrae to be re-elected as party leader in August next year?

Jin Joong-kwon: It's hard to say. It depends on how things unfold. It's up to the party members. I joke that it depends on Kim Eo-jun-how he steers public opinion. For now, Jeong Cheongrae is more popular among party members. The problem is that the president's support for Kim Minseok is blatantly obvious. This time, the intervention was especially overt. I didn't expect it to be this blatant, but they're willing to do anything to promote Kim Minseok. Supporters will be confused. In that case, Jeong Cheongrae needs to disrupt the dichotomy, saying, "Kim Minseok isn't enough; I can serve the president better." He shouldn't keep clashing. But it's hard to predict what he'll do. One thing is certain: under a presidential system, the ruling party leader who confronts the president is finished.

So Jongseop: There are widespread rumors that Jeong Won-oh, the district mayor, has been politically designated as the Democratic Party's candidate for Seoul mayor.

Jin Joong-kwon: He has been designated. In the past, when the Democratic Party won the Seoul mayoral race, they usually brought in outsiders. This time, while he isn't a complete outsider, he is an administrative official. Because he has a different profile, he could pose a threat to Oh Sehoon.

So Jongseop: Ultimately, do you think the president's judgment will determine the ruling party's candidates and the landscape for next year's local elections?

The Ruling Party's Local Election Landscape Will Be Determined by the President's Judgment

Jin Joong-kwon: That's how I see it. It's absolute. President Lee Jaemyung has already established this. He purged the non-mainstream faction through a brutal power struggle. Now, as president, his authority is even greater.

Jin Joong-kwon: Looking at the People Power Party, they're not ready for elections. There's a high chance it will be a repeat of 2018. They've become a regional party, like the TK or the United Liberal Democrats.

So Jongseop: The "Unification Church special prosecutor" is becoming a reality.

Jin Joong-kwon: It seems to me that negotiations between the Unification Church and the administration have concluded. The reason this issue was brought up was to say, "If you attack us, we can expose this." But when it came to court, they stayed silent. That means negotiations are over. That's one issue. But I think the biggest issue is the president himself. His name came up. There's talk of a direct meeting with the president.

The interesting question is: did they meet or not? Even if they did, it's not necessarily a legal problem, but it is a huge political problem. I don't think the presidential office can answer whether they met or not. If they did meet, the Unification Church would have documented it thoroughly. I think the VIP did meet with them.

The Party Cannot Continue Under CEO Jang Dong-hyuk

So Jongseop: Let me ask about the People Power Party. You are quite critical of CEO Jang Dong-hyuk, right?

Jin Joong-kwon: The party cannot continue under this system. He's basically a one-and-a-half-term lawmaker, without a real base in the party, yet he became party leader. Who made him leader? The hardliners. He has no real base outside of them. So he can't break away from them. That's why he can't apologize for the coup, can't reflect on it, and must oppose impeachment.

Professor Jin Joong-kwon of Dongyang University saw almost no possibility of a change in direction for CEO Jang Dong-hyuk. Photo by Hyunghan Heo

So Jongseop: So it's difficult for him to change his stance?

Jin Joong-kwon: The moment he supports impeachment or acknowledges it, his supporters will abandon him. He'd be left stranded. He's existentially bound to that position. Yet, he still has to fight elections, so he has to pretend to be moderate. That's why he leaks ambiguous statements to the media, talking about a slight left turn or left click-it's nonsense. He can't do it.

The structure forces him down this path. His perception of reality is also flawed. Where did the People Power Party's crisis come from? From the public's perspective, most lawmakers were absent when martial law was lifted, and they opposed impeachment. After being impeached, they hardly apologized. They haven't reflected and are repeating the "Yoon Again" approach. But they think the real problem is internal enemies. They blame those who represent the public's perspective, thinking that if they cut them out, the conservatives will unite and expand. It's a fantasy.

So Jongseop: So their diagnosis is completely wrong?

Jin Joong-kwon: It's a pipe dream. The party has been impeached twice. Even mice learn through trial and error, but these people have less intelligence than rodents. If that's the case, extinction is inevitable. They're probably trying to purge people labeled as the "Han Donghoon faction" and prevent them from playing a role in the upcoming local elections. They even replaced the ethics committee chair, but now they're stalled and probably debating whether to push ahead. The problem is, it's not just the Han Donghoon faction-most of the party is opposed. They're in a real dilemma. But one thing is clear: they will never apologize or reflect. They can't change their direction. If they do, they're finished.

So Jongseop: Former leader Han Donghoon says, with all these issues in the ruling party, why do they keep trying to fight with him?

CEO Jang Dong-hyuk's Mindset Is the Same as Yoon Suk-yeol's

Jin Joong-kwon: I answered Han Donghoon's question, and they really do think that way. They believe an internal enemy is more dangerous. Who is that enemy? It's Han Donghoon. So they attack him. Whenever there's an issue that's favorable to the opposition or damaging to the ruling party, they try to cover it up. The only people they fight with sincerity are their own-Han Donghoon in particular. They say, "Don't attack internally," but that's exactly what they do. They genuinely believe this.

So Jongseop: Is there any force that could bring about change in the Jang Dong-hyuk system?

Jin Joong-kwon: I don't think so. They're all opportunists, just waiting to see which side to align with. There are no courageous people. The first-term lawmakers got there by being sycophants. It's the same in both the People Power Party and the Democratic Party. Those who spoke out were all removed. They're not trying to change things; they're just watching and waiting to see where to position themselves.

CEO Jang Dong-hyuk's mindset is very similar to Yoon Suk-yeol's. Yoon also said, "We'll win the Gangseo District mayoral election, host the Busan Expo, win the general election," but after losing, nothing changed. They never admit they did anything wrong.

So Jongseop: What are your thoughts on the present and future of Lee Junseok and Han Donghoon?

The Problem with Lee Junseok Is Populism; the Problem with Han Donghoon Is Inclusiveness

Jin Joong-kwon: Lee Junseok seems to represent the 30s and 40s. He's a bit like a "Little Trump." Trump emerged in the US, and here, there's a similar trend among those in their 20s and 30s-a very right-wing, conservative movement, different from the old ideological right. The left needs to be wary of this new generation, and Lee Junseok is their leading figure.

The problem with Lee Junseok is his populism, as I mentioned earlier-attacking people with disabilities, women, the elderly, and Chinese people. It's very concerning. This is an inevitable trend, because those in their 50s and 60s are the so-called democratization generation. This generation doesn't believe in that. They feel the younger generation has reaped all the benefits-"Didn't the Roh Tae-woo administration give you all apartments? What have you given us? You're making it impossible for us to buy homes." This is a strong, emotional grievance, and it needs to be handled carefully. It's hard to predict the future.

As for former leader Han Donghoon, I've debated him three times, but our views never converged. However, he often brought up points I hadn't considered and was very diligent. He never used inflammatory rhetoric, always arguing rationally. Debating him was enjoyable. In the end, while our views didn't fully converge, I felt enriched and more flexible. He has excellent political instincts. He sees the essence of issues clearly. He's smart. I said the People Power Party has no brains, but Han Donghoon does.

The downside is whether he can be truly inclusive. He doesn't seem that way right now. A leader should have some flaws, some human charm, and even show vulnerability, but he seems too rigid. His political future depends on whether he can develop inclusiveness. In my view, aside from Han Donghoon and Oh Sehoon, there are few visible figures in the People Power Party. Although he's in a tough spot now, in the long run, he's one of the few who could save the conservatives. He's a fact-based politician, a rare and irreplaceable character in the conservative camp, so I think he'll eventually carve out his own space.

So Jongseop: We'll end here. Thank you for your insights today.

Jin Joong-kwon: Thank you. Thank you.