[War & Business] Europe's Defense Plan Stuck in Place Four Years After the Ukraine War

Over Two Years of Defense Roadmap Talks Continue
Mounting Discontent Among Nations Over Budget Proposals

On the 15th (local time), an anti-tank barrier installed at the border area between eastern Poland and Belarus. Photo by AP Yonhap News

The European Commission recently announced the "Defense Readiness Roadmap 2030," a European defense plan. Discussions began in 2023, the year after Russia invaded Ukraine, but it took nearly three years for the defense plan to be established. The main points are to build a continent-wide drone barrier across Europe and to raise the current joint weapons procurement rate, which is under 20 percent, to 40 percent by 2027.

However, the actual feasibility of these plans is very low. First, the announcement of this defense plan failed to secure an agreement on new funding. The only agreement reached was to maintain the European Security Action (SAFE) loan program, which was established right after the war in Ukraine, at 150 billion euros (about 249 trillion won). No additional budget was allocated for the drone barrier or joint weapons procurement. The rest is planned to be covered by increases in individual member states' defense budgets, but there is no agreement on which countries will bear the extra costs.

The conflicts within Europe surrounding the defense plan are even more complex. Last month, Russian drones crossed the borders of Poland and Romania, yet most Southern European countries still oppose the installation of the drone barrier. Spain, Italy, and Greece argue that the drone barrier will ultimately be built mainly in Eastern European countries bordering Russia, which they claim is highly unfair. They insist that if such a barrier is to be constructed, it should be built equally in all countries, regardless of East or West. In contrast, Eastern European countries argue that, since they are likely to be Russia's next targets, military resources should be concentrated on the eastern front.

The absence of the United States, which has supported European security for over 30 years since the end of the Cold War, is being felt more acutely than ever. With no leading country to drive defense strategy in place of the United States, conflicts between countries are proving difficult to resolve. Even though France has offered its nuclear umbrella and Germany has declared rearmament, neither country can serve as a central force. In France, dissatisfaction with the government's push for military expansion amid severe fiscal problems has led to repeated cabinet collapses, while in Germany, even the mere suggestion of reinstating conscription has brought the coalition government to the brink of collapse.

As Europe prepares to stand on its own in terms of security, previously unconsidered problems have also emerged. The most fundamental is the issue of military logistics and transport in wartime. Until now, the movement of European troops and military supplies has mostly relied on transport routes between U.S. military bases within Europe. Within Europe, only France and Germany possess their own military railways or roads. In an emergency, it is expected to take several months just to mobilize all civilian railways and vehicles, and to move them across national borders to Eastern Europe. Ultimately, there is an urgent need to build a vast military railway and road network spanning the continent, which would require enormous costs.

As these new costs begin to emerge, there are increasing concerns that the total European defense budget of 800 billion euros (about 1,328 trillion won) allocated by the EU from this year until 2030 will be nowhere near sufficient. This situation demonstrates how the pursuit of self-reliant security, without careful consideration of the defense strategies that have depended on the United States for decades, is coming at a significant price.

The sluggish progress of Europe's defense plans offers an important lesson for South Korea, which faces military threats from North Korea, China, and Russia. While the concept of self-reliant security may sound simple, devising concrete strategies and allocating budgets to implement them is extremely challenging. If self-reliant security remains nothing more than a political slogan, there is a danger it will end up as mere empty rhetoric.