Economists Most Prefer 'Waller' as Powell's Successor, but 'Hassett' Seen as Most Likely

39% of Respondents Say "Hassett Is the Most Likely"
Waller and Myron Follow
Waller Seen as the Leading Candidate in Betting Markets

A recent survey has found that economists most prefer Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller as the successor to Jerome Powell, the current chair of the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve (Fed).

The Financial Times (FT) reported on September 28 (local time) that in a survey of economists conducted in collaboration with the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, 82% of the 44 respondents selected Board member Waller as their top choice for the next Fed chair. However, only 20% of respondents actually expected him to succeed Powell.

Academics regard Board member Waller as the most qualified candidate for the next Fed chair, but they believe the likelihood of his appointment is low, mainly because President Trump is likely to choose someone who will cooperate with his own policies.

According to the economists surveyed, the most likely candidate to become the next Fed chair is Kevin Hassett, chair of the White House National Economic Council (NEC). Thirty-nine percent of respondents identified Hassett as the most likely person to take the position. Waller and newly appointed Fed Board member Steven Myron each followed with 20%.

However, no respondents said they preferred Myron as the next chair. Myron was nominated by President Donald Trump to replace former Board member Adriana Kugler, who resigned early.

FT interpreted the gap between the economists’ preferred candidate and the person they expect to actually become chair as reflecting the strong pressure President Trump has exerted on the Fed.

Since taking office, President Trump has consistently pressured the Fed to cut interest rates and has not hesitated to call Powell a "fool" and an "idiot" for refusing to do so. Trump even attempted to remove Powell from his position and has favored former Fed Board member Kevin Warsh, NEC chair Hassett, and Board member Waller as potential candidates for the next chair. FT reported that President Trump considers "loyalty" and an "aggressive willingness to cut rates" as essential qualifications for the next Fed chair.

In betting markets, Board member Waller is seen as the most likely candidate, with chair Hassett following closely behind.