LDP Leadership Election Begins on September 22
Asahi Shimbun Survey on Next Party Leader
Takaichi Leads with Highest Approval Rate
The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) officially began its leadership election on September 22 to select a successor to Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who has announced his intention to resign.
According to local media reports, five candidates were announced for the LDP leadership election on the morning of the same day: Sanae Takaichi (64), former Minister for Economic Security; Shinjiro Koizumi (44), Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries; Yoshimasa Hayashi (64), Chief Cabinet Secretary; Takayuki Kobayashi (50), former Minister for Economic Security; and Toshimitsu Motegi (69), former LDP Secretary-General.
The candidates are scheduled to begin their official campaigns with a policy presentation session in the afternoon, followed by a debate hosted by the party’s youth and women’s divisions on September 23, a Japan National Press Club debate and regional campaign speeches in three locations across the country on September 24.
Among the candidates, the most prominent contenders are Representative Takaichi, the only female candidate, and Representative Koizumi, who is in his 40s. According to an Asahi Shimbun telephone survey of 1,176 valid respondents conducted on September 20-21, 28% of respondents selected Representative Takaichi as the most suitable candidate for the next party leader, the highest percentage. Representative Koizumi followed with 24%. Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi ranked third with 9%, showing a significant gap between the top two candidates and the rest.
Among LDP supporters only, Representative Koizumi led with 41%, while Representative Takaichi was second with 24%.
Similarly, in a Mainichi Shimbun survey of 1,972 valid respondents conducted on September 20-21, Representative Takaichi (25%) and Representative Koizumi (21%) ranked first and second, respectively.
In a Nihon TV telephone poll of 1,010 party members and party supporters (members of LDP-affiliated political organizations) eligible to vote, conducted on September 19-20, 32% said they would support Representative Koizumi, the highest share. This was followed by Representative Takaichi (28%) and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi (15%).
This leadership election is being held in a party member participation format to broadly reflect internal party opinion. Each member of parliament casts one vote, and the votes of party members and supporters are converted into the equivalent number of parliamentary votes and added. If a candidate wins a majority in the first round, they are elected. If no one receives a majority, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff vote.
Currently, the Japanese parliament is in a situation where the ruling party does not hold a majority, making it a divided Diet. However, the LDP remains the largest party, and the opposition is fragmented, making it highly likely that the new LDP leader will succeed Prime Minister Ishiba.
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