US Treasury Chief: "Confident of Tariff Trial Victory... Defeat Would Be Terrible"

"If We Lose, About Half of Tariffs Must Be Refunded"

Scott Baesent, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, stated on September 7 (local time) that if the government loses the so-called "tariff trial," which is scheduled for a Supreme Court appeal, about half of the tariffs will have to be refunded, and that this would be a terrible outcome for the Treasury Department.

In an interview with NBC News that day, Secretary Baesent expressed confidence in President Donald Trump's victory, but added, "If the court tells us to do so, we will do it."

Scott Baesent, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury. Photo by AP Yonhap News

However, when the host asked whether the department was prepared to provide refunds, he replied, "There is nothing to prepare."

Secretary Baesent stated that if the court rules against President Trump, "there are many other ways we can continue to impose tariffs on foreign countries," but also acknowledged that this would "weaken President Trump's negotiating power."

President Donald Trump enforced the imposition of taxes (tariffs), which is the authority of Congress, based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The court ruled the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy invalid, and the Trump administration appealed to the U.S. Supreme Court on the 3rd. If the court ultimately rules the measure unconstitutional, the U.S. government could face massive refund claims.

According to the U.S. online media outlet Axios, economists estimate that about 71% of the Trump administration's tariff revenue could be affected by this ruling. The U.S. political media outlet Politico reported that trade experts predict tariff refunds could cause logistical disruptions and a surge in corporate lawsuits.

Secretary Baesent explained, "There are two types of tariffs: the fentanyl tariffs imposed on specific countries such as China and Canada, and reciprocal tariffs imposed on various countries." He argued that the tariffs based on IEEPA were implemented to protect the health of Americans and to normalize the trade balance emergency.

In response to criticism that manufacturing companies such as John Deere, Nike, and Black & Decker are struggling due to increased costs from the Trump administration's tariffs, he countered, "These are selectively chosen cases by the media." He added, "If the situation is so bad, why did the gross domestic product (GDP) grow by 3.3%? Why did the stock market hit record highs?"

Regarding the claim that tariffs are passed on to consumers and become taxes paid by Americans, he said, "I cannot accept that."

Meanwhile, Secretary Baesent responded to the so-called "employment shock" last month, when U.S. nonfarm jobs increased by only 22,000 from the previous month, falling far short of expectations, by saying, "August is the noisiest month of the year in terms of statistics."

He said, "We will not judge economic policy based on a single figure," but added, "If this figure is correct, it shows that President Trump was right to urge the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates." He continued, "Next week, we will receive revised figures for last year, and up to 800,000 jobs could be revised downward."

The Trump administration believes that job growth figures were inflated during the previous Joe Biden administration. As a series of statistics recently showed worsening employment, former President Biden dismissed the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he had appointed.