[100 Days of the Lee Administration] "A Smooth Start with the South Korea-U.S. Summit... Prepare for a New Cold War Era"

Pragmatic Diplomacy: Achievements and Challenges
Navigating U.S. Relations, the Administration’s Toughest Test
A New Balance of Power Presents Diplomatic Difficulties

Over the past 100 days, evaluations of the Lee Jaemyung administration's "pragmatic diplomacy" have been largely positive. In particular, the administration has been praised for its smooth handling of the most challenging early issues-negotiating tariffs with the United States and holding a summit with U.S. President Donald Trump-earning the assessment that it has made a strong start.

However, the real test is just beginning. On September 3, during the military parade marking the 80th anniversary of Victory Day in Beijing, China, the leaders of North Korea, China, and Russia gathered together for the first time in 66 years, creating a symbolic scene of what is being called an "anti-U.S. alliance." Concerns are emerging that this marks the beginning of a new Cold War structure, with "South Korea-U.S.-Japan" on one side and "North Korea-China-Russia" on the other. For South Korea, which must balance national interests and security between the United States and China, this diplomatic landscape is expected to be especially challenging.

The Korean Peninsula issue, in particular, remains at an impasse. Unlike in 2017, when North Korea was effectively isolated from the international community due to ongoing missile provocations, in 2025 North Korea is demonstrating strong ties with its major allies, Russia and China. Inter-Korean relations have become a cog in the wheel of international affairs. President Lee Jaemyung’s perspective-positioning Trump as the "peacemaker" while casting himself as the "pacemaker"-is based on this reality. Whereas former President Moon Jaein "held America's hand," President Lee must now "stand on America's shoulders."

It is also a concern that North Korea continues to adhere to its "two hostile states" doctrine even after the launch of the new administration. The new diplomatic and security team consists of key figures: Wi Sunglak as Director of the National Security Office, Lee Jongseok as Director of the National Intelligence Service, and Chung Dongyoung as Minister of Unification. However, it remains unclear who will serve as the "key man" directly connecting President Lee to the front lines of North Korea policy. In North Korea, Kim Yo-jong, the sister of Chairman Kim Jong-un and a member of the so-called "Paektu bloodline," oversees messaging toward South Korea.

'2018 Special Envoy to North Korea' Yoon Gunyoung: "Inter-Korean Relations Require Patience and Determination"

Yoon Gunyoung, Democratic Party of Korea lawmaker (former director of the Blue House National Situation Room), who is known as "Moon Jaein’s closest confidant" and visited Pyongyang as a special envoy to North Korea in 2018, said in an interview with Asia Economy, "I believe the direction (of North Korea policy) has been set well." He also agreed with the Lee Jaemyung administration’s stance of prioritizing North Korea-U.S. dialogue, in contrast to the Moon Jaein administration’s active mediation between North Korea and the United States, saying, "I think it is the right approach."

Yoon recalled, "The inter-Korean summit held at Panmunjom on May 26, 2018, which was arranged in a single day, was at the request of Chairman Kim, who felt uneasy ahead of the North Korea-U.S. summit," adding, "It was a meeting where (former President Moon’s) 'driver of the Korean Peninsula' theory worked perfectly." In comparison, he explained, "Now, beside Chairman Kim stands Russian President Vladimir Putin," and "the situation on the Korean Peninsula has changed completely after three years under the Yoon Sukyeol administration."

Yoon emphasized, "What the Lee Jaemyung administration needs in inter-Korean relations is patience and determination," advising, "Rather than acting hastily, it is better to first hold a North Korea-U.S. summit and prepare while waiting for the right moment."

Regarding the conditions for resuming North Korea-U.S. talks, he said, "Chairman Kim will be waiting for more than just a proposal to meet from President Trump." When asked about the specific meaning of "action," Yoon said, "The United States will be asked to clarify its position on North Korea’s nuclear weapons," and "before sitting at the negotiating table with President Trump, the issue is how the United States will view North Korea’s nuclear program."

He also recalled President Trump’s mention of "Nuclear Power." Yoon noted, "From Chairman Kim’s perspective, after traveling by train for 60 hours only to be snubbed at the so-called 'Hanoi No Deal' in 2019, he needs a justification to meet President Trump again." He continued, "Sanctions relief is the next step; before that, Chairman Kim appears to be waiting for the U.S. president’s position and definition regarding North Korea’s nuclear weapons and the current situation."

U.S. Diplomacy: A Series of Uncertainties... The Lee Administration’s Greatest Challenge

Ultimately, the importance of "four-power diplomacy" has grown, as resolving issues on the Korean Peninsula now requires cooperation with the United States, China, and Russia. In particular, persuading the unpredictable President Trump to help find solutions for the Korean Peninsula is an extremely complex challenge.

Sangung Ha, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Sogang University and an expert on U.S. affairs, said, "The recent South Korea-U.S. summit may not have yielded tangible results, but the fact that it ended smoothly without major incidents is itself a significant achievement." He added, "President Lee’s decision to bring up Chairman Kim and devote considerable time to inter-Korean issues, while avoiding sensitive topics, was a very effective strategy." However, he also expressed concern, saying, "Currently, working-level discussions in the United States are not being communicated up to the top leadership," and "the United States has effectively become an authoritarian state under President Trump."

It is also notable that issues expected to be major agenda items at the South Korea-U.S. summit, such as defense cost-sharing and the relocation of U.S. Forces Korea, were not mentioned. He said, "The lesson to be learned from this summit is to review why the so-called expert-predicted agenda items were not brought up."

Professor Ha stated, "Looking back, since the start of the second administration, not once have East Asian military and security issues been raised by U.S. officials other than President Trump himself." He continued, "When it comes to military and security issues on the Korean Peninsula, it is a mistake to assume that statements by State Department or Defense Department officials represent President Trump’s views or official U.S. policy."

He went on, "In the past, statements by high-ranking U.S. officials in diplomatic channels with South Korea were already coordinated and could be considered the official U.S. position, but now, there is no way to know 'what Trump thinks.' When meeting with U.S. officials, it is essential to ask, 'Is this really what Trump thinks?' I suspect that few officials can answer confidently, and if so, there is even less reason to trust them."

He emphasized again, "Given the current situation, there is no need to be surprised or flustered by remarks from U.S. officials or even U.S. Forces Korea personnel. Instead, it is extremely important to calmly respond and to question whether their statements truly reflect the 'official position of the U.S. government' as aligned with President Trump’s views."