[Exclusive] "First Mammal Species Expected to Go Extinct Due to Climate Change to Be Predicted Next Year"

Axel Timmermann, Director of IBS Center for Climate Physics:
"Development of Relevant Computer Model Completed... Research Underway"
Discussions on Collaboration with Vaccine Institutes

"A study predicting the future risk areas for the first climate change-induced endangered species and zoonotic infectious diseases such as Lassa fever and Ebola will be released next year."

Axel Timmermann, a world-renowned climate scientist and director of the Center for Climate Physics at the Institute for Basic Science (IBS), announced that climate change will also affect the fate of mammals and that he will publish research findings on this topic next year.

Axel Timmermann, director of the IBS Climate Physics Research Division, received an honorary Busan citizenship certificate from Park Hyungjun, mayor of Busan, on the 18th. Photo by IBS

Director Timmermann stated at the international climate conference 'BACO-2025' held in Busan on July 25 that he has completed the development of a new computer model and has begun research on the extinction risk of mammals due to climate change. This study, titled "The Impact of Mammals in Response to Climate Change Predictions," aims to be commercialized by mid-2026.

Director Timmermann has published numerous papers in leading academic journals such as Nature and Science through his extensive research on El Nino, paleoclimate, and other climate topics. He has also been named one of Clarivate's "Highly Cited Researchers" for seven consecutive years. On July 18, he was also selected as an honorary citizen of Busan.

Director Timmermann said, "The model development and testing have been completed, and we are now running future climate change simulations using IBS's supercomputer 'Aleph'." He added, "Once this work is completed in the next few months, we will publish the first official paper containing the research results," and specified, "Our goal is to finish all preparations by mid-2026."

Axel Timmermann, head of the Climate Physics Division at IBS, is giving a presentation at the BACO 2025 event held in Busan on the 25th. Photo by Baek Jongmin, Tech Specialist

The newly developed model simulates how specific species respond to climate change, migrate, and eventually go extinct, based on data from more than 2,000 mammal species worldwide and paleoclimate data. The research team has demonstrated the accuracy of the model by successfully reproducing the extinction process of large animals such as mammoths.

The academic community as well as the pharmaceutical industry are paying close attention to Professor Timmermann's research. Once the results are available, it will be possible to identify the cascading effects of climate change on ecosystems and human health in advance, develop vaccines before disease outbreaks, or establish conservation plans for endangered species, thereby opening the way for proactive responses. Director Timmermann said, "We are already in discussions with a vaccine institute for collaboration."

According to Director Timmermann, the simulation targets of the model also include humans. However, he explained, "Due to the explosive cultural evolution over the past 10,000 years, human behavioral patterns have become completely different from those of other mammals." He added, "For this reason, while it is possible to simulate the migration of past humans, it is currently impossible to predict the future survival of humanity using the same equations."

Director Timmermann, who is originally from Germany, previously worked at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and the University of Hawaii. Since 2017, he has been serving as the founding director of the IBS Center for Climate Physics and as a distinguished professor at Pusan National University.