[Chip Talk] The Intensifying 'HBM4 Supremacy War'...Who Will Seize Market Leadership First?

The Three-Way Race: Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron
Aiming to Reshape the Market with HBM4 Supply
Samsung Seeks to Level Up with 1c DRAM Technology
Concerns Over HBM Oversupply and Price Drops Next Year

The opening salvo of the artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductor supremacy war has begun. As global demand for AI surges, the key variable that will determine who takes the lead in the next-generation semiconductor market is who can first supply customers with stable, sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM), known as HBM4, in large volumes.

According to industry sources, the three global memory giants?Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron?are all focused on final-stage technology development to begin mass production of HBM4 products in the second half of this year. SK Hynix and Micron have already supplied 12-stack HBM4 samples to major customers in the first half of the year. It is believed that these customers include Nvidia, a key source of HBM demand.

Samsung Electronics, which is in the chase, is now under significant pressure. Having failed to pass Nvidia's quality test for HBM3E, Samsung Electronics is now turning to HBM4 development as a potential game-changer. An industry insider explained, "Samsung Electronics, whose semiconductor performance has not been strong this year, sees HBM4 as its last opportunity for a turnaround," adding, "Although the company fell behind in HBM3E supply, it believes that if it can mass-produce HBM4 first, it could overturn the market landscape."

The three companies are pursuing different strategies with regard to HBM4. Samsung Electronics considers its ace to be the sixth-generation (1c) DRAM at the 10nm (1nm = one billionth of a meter) level. The 10nm-class DRAM process technology has been developed in the following order: 1x (first generation), 1y (second generation), 1z (third generation), 1a (fourth generation), and 1b (fifth generation). As the process moves to the sixth generation, or 1c, the technical difficulty increases and both capacity and performance are enhanced. HBM4 based on 1c DRAM is superior in performance and power efficiency compared to products based on 1b. If Samsung Electronics succeeds in developing 1c DRAM and supplies HBM4, it will be able to surpass SK Hynix, which is mass-producing HBM4 based on the fifth generation (1b).

The key question is whether Samsung Electronics can mass-produce HBM4 as planned. With a supply glut in the HBM market already expected in 2026, securing supply chain leadership has become more critical than ever. Until now, SK Hynix has maintained an exclusive supplier position with about 70% market share in HBM3E, but there are analyses suggesting that it will be difficult to maintain a price premium as the market shifts to HBM4 next year. Recently, the American investment bank Goldman Sachs predicted in a report that the average price of HBM next year will fall by about 10% compared to this year. Domestic securities firms are also consecutively lowering their HBM price forecasts for next year.

Amid these developments, there are predictions that Samsung Electronics will deliver HBM4 samples to major customers such as Nvidia in the third quarter of this year. In the industry, it is reported that the yield rate of the 1c process has recently improved to around 50%. With Nvidia’s next-generation product, Rubin, which will be equipped with HBM4, expected to launch next year, the deadline for supply is drawing even closer.

Some observers believe that SK Hynix will not lose its leadership. The interpretation is that SK Hynix, which already holds a competitive edge in the HBM market, possesses know-how in securing yield rates and maintaining cooperative relationships with customers such as Nvidia. On July 24, SK Hynix announced record-breaking quarterly results for the second quarter, driven by HBM sales. The company emphasized that it plans to double its HBM shipments this year compared to last year and significantly expand its investment scale.

Micron is rapidly expanding its presence by increasing its market share in the HBM sector. Until now, SK Hynix (53%) and Samsung Electronics (39%) have together accounted for over 90% of the global HBM market, but it is now expected that Micron's market share, which had been below 10%, will rise into the double digits. Market research firm TrendForce has projected that Micron's HBM market share will approach 20% this year. Micron has also supplied HBM4 samples to several customers and is focusing its development efforts on 1b DRAM-based products.

The competition over 'hybrid bonding' technology, a semiconductor stacking technique, is also intensifying. Since high-performance HBM requires stacking many DRAM chips, hybrid bonding technology, which enables thinner overall chip thickness, is considered essential. Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron all plan to apply hybrid bonding to their next-generation HBM products. Samsung Electronics announced that it will use both TC bonding and hybrid bonding for the 16-stack seventh-generation HBM, HBM4E, and will fully apply hybrid bonding to mass production starting from the 20-stack eighth-generation HBM5. SK Hynix reportedly plans to maintain its current process for HBM4, but introduce hybrid bonding starting with the 20-stack HBM4E.