"Unpredictable Forecasts"... Expert Warns of Worst Climate Disasters to Hit the Korean Peninsula [BACO-25]

(Interview) Kevin Reed, Professor at State University of New York
"Mid-latitude regions, densely populated cities, and coastal areas will be more affected"

There has been a warning that the frequency of heavy rains and heatwaves, which have been intensifying worldwide, will become even more frequent and severe in the future.

Kevin Reed, professor at the State University of New York (SUNY) Stony Brook campus and associate vice president of the Climate and Sustainability Program, said in an interview with Asia Economy on the 23rd, "Rainfall events that used to occur once every 100 to 200 years are now happening two or three times a year," adding, "The frequency of such extreme downpours will increase further, and their intensity (amount) will also become stronger."

Kevin Reed, professor at the State University of New York (SUNY) Stony Brook campus and associate vice president of the Climate and Sustainability Program, is being interviewed. Photo by Jonghwa Kim

Professor Reed is an authority on climate modeling related to future scenarios of typhoons and heavy rainfall, and serves as a member of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Atmospheric Science and Climate in the United States. He visited Korea to attend the International Symposium on Meteorology, Oceanography, and Cryosphere (BACO-25) under the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), which opened on the 21st.

Regarding the recent global weather anomalies, such as extreme rainfall exceeding 70mm per hour, Professor Reed explained, "Last month in Texas, about 150 people died due to heavy rains, and climate disasters are being repeated worldwide. In the northwestern Pacific, the intensity of typhoons is increasing," adding, "The Korean Peninsula is now falling deeper within the affected area."

This proves that the impacts of climate change can vary by region. He said, "There is a global trend of increasing extreme weather events," and diagnosed, "In particular, heavy rains and heatwaves are more common in the mid-latitudes, and densely populated, urbanized, and coastal areas are likely to be more affected."

Professor Reed stated, "The total number of tropical cyclones worldwide remains roughly around 90 per year, but the proportion of 'super typhoons' is increasing," adding, "In the northwestern Pacific, the point of maximum typhoon intensity is gradually shifting northward, meaning that regions located in the mid-latitudes, like Korea, are increasingly likely to experience stronger typhoons in the future."

Regarding typhoon prediction systems, he said, "It is still difficult," explaining, "Although accuracy has improved and spatial resolution has gotten better, making track predictions more reliable, forecasting 'rapid intensification'?when a typhoon strengthens dramatically within 24 hours before landfall?remains a major challenge."

He warned against water management policies, including climate response dams, being reduced to political tools. Professor Reed pointed out, "It is not desirable for dam construction decisions to change with each administration. Judgments should be based on scientific factors such as regional climate conditions, demand, and environmental impact," and stressed, "If we are swayed by political logic, our response to the climate crisis will inevitably be undermined."

He also emphasized the need to advance crisis response systems. He said, "Current crisis response systems are based on data from the past 40 to 50 years," and warned, "If we do not build systems that fit the current changed climate, we will end up wasting money (taxes). Consistent alerts (forecasts) are important."

He further stressed the importance of expanding renewable energy. Professor Reed said, "During heatwaves, wind speeds decrease, leading to a shortage of wind power generation. In such cases, other energy sources are needed," adding, "To respond to these variables, hydropower or natural gas generation is also necessary."