Rumors of Xi Jinping's Downfall Shake China... Why They Won't Die Down [AK Radio]

Xi Jinping's Military Confidants Fall One After Another
Attention Focused on Shifts in US-China Relations and the Korean Peninsula Situation

Rumors about the downfall of Chinese President Xi Jinping have become a major topic not only in China but also among leading media outlets worldwide. South Korea is also showing considerable interest in the situation. With attention already focused on whether President Xi will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled to be held in Gyeongju this October, the emergence of these rumors has further heightened interest in China's internal political dynamics.

Analysts are suggesting that the ongoing downfall of President Xi's military confidants may not be mere rumor. Although there have been similar rumors in the past, the current situation appears to be different. Speculation about Xi's downfall has persisted for several years since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, recently, US and Taiwanese media outlets such as the New York Post and Taiwan's Liberty Times have begun reporting that President Xi has effectively lost power.

The reason these reports have started to be treated as established facts rather than mere rumors is that several military officials known to be President Xi's closest allies have recently fallen from power. He Weidong, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission and the third-highest-ranking military official, was arrested on corruption charges. Another close associate, the director of the Central Military Commission's Political Work Department, also recently lost command due to corruption allegations.

As a result, some analysts believe that the Chinese military is now effectively controlled by Zhang Youxia, the vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, who is known to be at odds with President Xi. During the closing ceremony of China's National People's Congress in March, footage of Vice Chairman Zhang turning his back on President Xi and leaving the venue was broadcast, fueling rumors of significant shifts within the military. Even more noteworthy is the fact that in October last year, Vice Chairman Zhang made a state visit to Vietnam alone, without accompanying President Xi. For an official who is not the head of state to make a state visit is almost unthinkable in an authoritarian regime like China. Furthermore, it is reported that President Xi was unable to impose any sanctions on Zhang after the fact, leading to interpretations that a power rift is underway.

The Chinese government also appears to be aware of these rumors. Recently, CCTV broadcast footage of senior officials, especially Vice Chairman Zhang, taking notes during a speech by President Xi. Separately, news emerged that the Chinese Communist Party plans to establish a new decision-making and coordination body, adding to the confusion surrounding the situation.

AFP Yonhap News

Originally, President Xi and Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia were said to be as close as sworn brothers. Their families had close ties dating back to the postwar era, and during the Cultural Revolution, they were exiled together and endured hardships. In the early days of Xi's administration, he reportedly trusted Zhang so much that he allowed him to directly manage his personal security detail.

However, it is said that their relationship began to deteriorate publicly and officially starting in 2022. President Xi was born in 1953, and Vice Chairman Zhang in 1950, making them three years apart. The Chinese Communist Party has an unwritten rule known as "seven up, eight down," meaning that officials can remain in leadership until age 67, but must retire at 68.

After President Xi ignored this convention and declared his intention to rule for life, Vice Chairman Zhang is said to have opposed him. President Xi reportedly confronted Zhang, saying, "You are three years older than me; why are you still here?" This dispute ultimately stemmed from President Xi's desire for lifelong rule, which became the fundamental cause of their rift.

The Chinese military is currently divided into two major factions: "Yuejinfang" and "Dahaifang." Yuejinfang is a faction centered around Vice Chairman Zhang, who fought in the 1979 Vietnam War, and is mainly composed of air force and missile units. In contrast, Dahaifang refers to a group of naval officers, mostly from Fujian Province, which faces the Taiwan Strait.

The two factions have long been in competition, and President Xi maintained his power by balancing them. However, with the air force and missile units becoming increasingly important in modern warfare, the Yuejinfang faction has grown significantly. President Xi attempted to purge this faction to adjust the balance of power, but this backfired, resulting in the mass purge of Dahaifang members on corruption charges instead.

Notably, Vice Chairman He Weidong, a key figure in Dahaifang, was arrested on corruption charges. This has led to interpretations that the power struggle within the military has escalated, resulting in a complete split between President Xi and Vice Chairman Zhang.

Interpretations of these rumors vary both inside and outside China. There is relatively little coverage of such news within China itself; instead, anti-regime media outside China, especially in Taiwan, often report on these issues, leading to the proliferation of fake news and divided opinions on the credibility of the rumors.

However, some analysts argue that the Chinese Communist Party's unique characteristics, compared to other communist states, suggest that President Xi may have indeed lost real power. Unlike the Soviet Union, where losing power often meant execution or total disappearance, China prefers to present the appearance of a stable transfer of power to the outside world.

Reuters Yonhap News

In fact, after the death of Chairman Mao Zedong, his successor, Chairman Hua Guofeng, came to power in 1977. Although real power had already shifted to Chairman Deng Xiaoping by 1978, the official transfer of authority did not occur until 1980. This historical precedent makes the current situation difficult to interpret.

Because China tends to pursue a gradual and moderate transfer of power, even when a leader loses real authority, they are often retained as a figurehead, sent into internal exile, or placed under house arrest. The actual timing of the transfer of power can only be determined retrospectively.

Unlike in the past, current reports are stating definitively that President Xi has lost real power, rather than cautiously speculating about his downfall. With his key confidants continuously stepping down from official positions and the power structure appearing unstable, it is difficult to dismiss these rumors as fake news. Historical precedents suggest that there is a strong possibility that President Xi has indeed lost much of his authority.

Although an immediate transfer of power in China seems unlikely, if President Xi is truly in a serious situation, it could have a profound impact on international affairs. The most significant effects would be felt in the military tensions surrounding the Taiwan Strait and the potential for conflict with the United States.

President Xi has consistently taken a hardline stance on these issues, emphasizing the task of national unification. Some analysts have suggested that he highlighted this even more as he needed achievements to justify his lifelong rule. There have been concerns that, as President Putin of Russia used the logic of national unification to justify the attack on Ukraine, something similar could happen in China.

However, if the leadership changes or China returns to a collective leadership system, as before Deng Xiaoping's rule, with regular leadership transitions every ten years, the likelihood of an adventurous war for lifelong rule is expected to disappear. The Chinese government is likely to focus more on resolving internal political and livelihood issues, and there is hope that conflicts with the United States and its allies will be less intense than before.

Once a successor is more clearly determined, issues related to China, North Korea's nuclear program, the Korean Peninsula, Korea-China diplomatic relations, and trade are all expected to change significantly. The South Korean government, as well as the US and other countries, are likely to formulate scenarios and response strategies based on the potential successors.