CSIS Hosts Online Seminar
US Strike on Iran Makes
North Korea's CVID Virtually Impossible
Amid the upcoming Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled to be held in South Korea at the end of October, the possibility of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been raised. This speculation stems from the view that North Korea's "complete, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization (CVID)" has become virtually impossible following the recent U.S. strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), made these remarks on June 30 (local time) during an online seminar hosted by CSIS on the impact of the U.S. airstrike on Iran on North Korea, China, and Russia.
Cha stated, "One of the consequences of the U.S. airstrike on Iran may be that North Korea's CVID is essentially dead."
He analyzed that from North Korea's perspective, they would believe that nuclear weapons would shield them from a scenario in which more than ten bunker busters, like those used against Iran, are dropped on their territory, and would therefore consider their choice to pursue nuclear armament as the "right path."
Cha also commented that it is still unclear whether the recent U.S. attack on Iran will actually prompt the resumption of U.S.-North Korea negotiations. However, he added that the possibility cannot be ruled out that North Korea might come to the negotiating table in order to avoid a U.S. bunker buster strike.
He further assessed that the Trump administration would also have reasons to engage in negotiations with North Korea to prevent cooperation between Iran and North Korea, including North Korea's provision of weapons to Russia and support for the reconstruction of Iran's uranium enrichment facilities. While dialogue aimed at complete denuclearization of North Korea has become more difficult, he noted that the U.S. and North Korea could still engage in talks for security interests.
In particular, he pointed out that if President Trump visits South Korea for the APEC summit at the end of October, he might seek another meeting with Chairman Kim Jong Un at Panmunjom.
He also noted that the close ties between North Korea and Russia, formed as North Korea supports Russia's invasion of Ukraine, could impact not only the Korean Peninsula but also security in other regions, including the Middle East.
Cha predicted that as North Korea gains significant benefits from Russia in exchange for military support, China's influence over North Korea has weakened, and with Russia allowing North Korea to act as it wishes, any future North Korean actions in support of Iran could create dangerous situations in the Middle East.
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