Hostility Remains High, Risk of Resumption Persists
North Korea Proceeding with Troop Selection for Deployment
Analysis: Russia Providing Technical Advice and Economic Cooperation
On June 26, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) assessed that the possibility of renewed military conflict between Israel and Iran remains open at any time. Regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, the NIS analyzed that North Korea may dispatch troops as early as July or August.
The NIS reported on the international situation and related matters to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on this day.
Park Sunwon, the Democratic Party's secretary for the Intelligence Committee, stated during a briefing, "An official report on current issues was presented," and added, "With regard to the Middle East situation, Israel and Iran agreed to a sudden ceasefire after 12 days of armed conflict, but both sides harbor deep animosity, so the risk of resumption remains alive at any time." He continued, "Israel could resume the war based on political considerations, given its domestic political circumstances. Iran, on the other hand, is in an unstable situation where it may also go to war to restore internal order and demonstrate its influence once again."
Regarding the possibility of the conflict expanding to neighboring areas in the Middle East, the NIS is supporting the safe evacuation of Korean nationals and providing prompt information to those remaining overseas. Park said, "To ensure the safety of vessels operating near the Strait of Hormuz, multiple government agencies are being fully mobilized to protect our ships. We are also continuously monitoring the safety of not only ships but also airports and ports."
Lee Sungkwon, the People Power Party's secretary for the Intelligence Committee, introduced the Russia-Ukraine war situation, saying, "According to Ukrainian intelligence authorities, Russia is likely to launch a major offensive in July or August." Lee explained, "The NIS cited as grounds the fact that during the previous troop dispatch, Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council, visited North Korea and agreed on military deployment, and about a month later, the deployment took place. Considering that North Korea has recently begun the selection process for recruiting troops for deployment, the NIS analyzes that it will likely occur in July or August."
The NIS reported that North Korea is believed to have provided Russia with weapons such as artillery shells?estimated at around 10 million rounds?missiles, and long-range artillery, using ships and military aircraft. Additionally, Lee said that Russia has provided North Korea with economic cooperation, air defense missiles, electronic jamming equipment, and has offered technical advice on space launch vehicle engines, drones, and improvements to missile guidance capabilities.
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