With the KOSPI surpassing the 3,000 mark, there are projections that further gains will require increased liquidity and a weaker dollar.
Lee Jaeman, a researcher at Hana Securities, explained this in a report titled "How Far Can the KOSPI Go and How Will It Get There?" released on June 23.
Researcher Lee emphasized, "Certain conditions are necessary for the KOSPI to rise further," adding, "First, an increase in global liquidity and a weaker dollar are essential requirements."
He continued, "Currently, global liquidity stands at 111 trillion dollars and has been consistently hitting all-time highs since 2025. The dollar has been weak since 2025, and considering the possibility of the US Federal Reserve lowering its benchmark interest rate in September and December, the likelihood of continued dollar weakness is high."
He stated, "From August 2024 to April this year, foreign investors in the KOSPI were net sellers of 38 trillion won, but in May and June, they were net buyers of 6 trillion won. Considering that the Korean won is undervalued by 9% based on the real effective exchange rate, there is a possibility that the exchange rate may decline." He added, "On a monthly basis, when the exchange rate falls compared to the previous month, the average net buying amount by foreigners is 800 billion won."
He explained, "When KOSPI net profits increased and surpassed previous peaks, the average price-earnings ratio (PER) was 12.3 times. Applying the projected net profit of 210 trillion won for 2025, the market capitalization would be 2,600 trillion won, which suggests a 7% upside potential compared to the current level. Based on this, the projected upper limit for the KOSPI is 3,240 points."
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