[Chodong Perspective] Don't Look China

Released in 2021, Adam McKay's film "Don't Look Up" is a box office hit that satirically depicts how scientists' warnings about a catastrophic comet collision are ignored due to political interests and media commercialization. In the film, the United States either disregards or distorts clear signs of disaster, ultimately facing the end without any preparation. Although this setting appears to be an exaggerated black comedy, it strangely overlaps with South Korea's public strategy toward China in recent years.

Since the inauguration of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration in 2022, South Korea's diplomacy has rapidly reorganized around the US-Korea alliance, promoting itself as a "global pivotal state." This included participation in the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy, the semiconductor supply chain consultative body, and the launch of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG). While the overall direction aligned with the demands of the times, the problem lay in the strategic judgment regarding China, which forms the other axis. In summary, it was closer to an absence than a bias.

A scene from the movie 'Don Look Up (2021)'

According to materials published by major national policy research institutes, the number of strategy documents related to China sharply declined under the previous administration. In the list of national policy tasks, China was never explicitly mentioned as a priority. In the recently released 2024 Diplomatic White Paper by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the relationships with the United States and Japan are described with clear goals as "alliance" and "partnership," while the relationship with China is only referred to as "strategic management." Even setting aside the fact that the analysis on China is only about four pages long?half the length of the section on the United States (eight pages)?the content is hollow, consisting only of one-off situations and case-based descriptions.

With the government's approach as such, private organizations and affiliated institutions also hesitated or downplayed research and monitoring related to China. At one research institute, it was openly stated internally that "there will be no budget for China-related research for the time being." In another large private research center, all researchers specializing in China moved to law firms as their positions became marginalized, leaving no one in charge of China-related research, according to reports.

An executive at a major domestic conglomerate confessed that he had submitted several business trip reports since last year, but none were approved. The reports involved visiting a massive logistics center operated by a Chinese company with business relevance, but his supervisor said there was no need to go. Another invitation from the headquarters of an information and communications company in China was also dismissed by the company, which saw no necessity in such exchanges. The executive explained to the reporter that there seemed to be a prevailing view that there was nothing to gain from direct exchanges with Chinese companies. The two companies that had extended invitations were Alibaba and Huawei, leading big tech firms in China.

China (accounting for 19.5% of South Korea's exports) remains South Korea's largest trading partner and maintains a broad structure of industrial interdependence. In sectors such as semiconductors, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, steel, and secondary batteries, China has either surpassed or is closely catching up with South Korea's core industries. The reasons for closely examining the current state of Chinese technology, understanding its decision-making structure, and fostering experts should be found not in personal likes or dislikes, but in reality.

The encouraging sign is that there is growing recognition of the need to highlight China's technological rise and to develop response strategies, and that China is not a "foretold danger" like a falling comet, but a "predictable variable." What is needed now is the willingness to see "what is right there."