Trump Wants Progress Like the First North Korea-US Summit
Key Factor: North Korea's Response
Hanoi "No Deal" Trauma and North Korea-Russia Relations as Variables
For the first time, evidence has emerged that the Donald Trump administration attempted to resume North Korea-US dialogue just four months after taking office. As President Trump has expressed his desire for progress in relations similar to that achieved during the first North Korea-US summit in Singapore in 2018, attention is focused on whether he can reignite the stalled relationship between the two countries. Ultimately, observers suggest that the resumption of North Korea-US talks depends on North Korea's response, the surrounding environment including the US and Russia, and whether President Trump's "top-down diplomacy" can overcome the limitations of the past.
White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt stated during a briefing on the 11th (local time), "The President remains receptive to an exchange of letters with Kim Jong Un," adding, "He would like to see the progress achieved in Singapore during his first term once again." Leavitt went on to say, "I will leave it to President Trump to respond regarding any specific exchange of letters."
This comment was made in response to questions about media reports that North Korea had rejected a personal letter sent by President Trump to Kim Jong Un. This is interpreted as neither denying the reports nor indicating that President Trump remains open to progress in North Korea-US relations.
Earlier, US-based North Korea-focused outlet NK News reported, citing anonymous sources, that President Trump, seeking to restore the North Korea-US communication channel, attempted to deliver a personal letter to Kim Jong Un through North Korean diplomats based in New York, but they refused to accept it. The outlet noted that President Trump’s attempt to send the letter was aimed at resuming the dialogue that had taken place during the North Korea-US summits in his first term.
Reuters interpreted the situation as follows: "At the second North Korea-US summit in Hanoi in 2019, North Korea tried to secure sanctions relief in exchange for dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear facility, but the summit ended with 'no deal' after President Trump demanded more. Experts analyze that this may still be a 'trauma' for Kim Jong Un."
During his first term, President Trump held three summits with Kim Jong Un and achieved the 2018 Singapore agreement, which included establishing a new North Korea-US relationship, building a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, and working toward complete denuclearization. Subsequently, the two sides exchanged several personal letters, demonstrating a personal rapport, and in June 2019, President Trump briefly stepped into North Korean territory at Panmunjom.
The possibility of resuming dialogue with North Korea still remains. Recently, President Trump referred to North Korea as a "nuclear power," effectively acknowledging the reality of its nuclear arsenal. This suggests an intention to officially maintain the goal of "complete denuclearization of North Korea" while lowering the threshold for dialogue. In addition, the rise of President Lee Jaemyung, who has pledged to restore inter-Korean dialogue, is also raising expectations for the resumption of both North Korea-US and inter-Korean talks.
However, experts predict that negotiations with Kim Jong Un will be much more difficult for both President Trump and President Lee Jaemyung than in the past. This is because North Korea has significantly enhanced its nuclear and missile capabilities, and its willingness to negotiate with the US may have weakened due to strengthened military cooperation with Russia. Another variable is that Russia, currently at war with Ukraine, may not welcome its de facto ally North Korea’s approach to the US.
Andrei Lankov, a professor at Kookmin University, told NK News, "Kim Jong Un does not need Trump as much as he did in 2018 or 2019," but added, "North Korea is still interested in negotiations, although the deal it wants this time will be much less attractive to the US than what was on offer in Hanoi in 2019." He advised, "Trump needs to be patient in bringing North Korea back to the negotiating table."
US political outlet Politico also noted, "Kim Jong Un's possession of nuclear weapons will pose a major obstacle to renewed talks," adding, "Since Washington's previous top priority of denuclearization is no longer feasible, the US should focus on reducing the risk of nuclear war."
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