OECD Lowers U.S. Growth Forecast from 2.2% to 1.6%
Concerns Rise Over U.S.-China Trade Negotiation Stalemate
Trump Criticizes China for "Violating Trade Agreement"
China Responds: "U.S. at Fault... Will Firmly Protect Our Rights"
April Job Openings Reach 7.391 Million, Exceeding Expectations
The three major indices on the New York Stock Exchange were mixed in early trading on the 3rd (local time), hovering near the flatline. As investors focus on the outcome of trade negotiations between the United States and its major trading partners, a wait-and-see sentiment is spreading in the market. Concerns over a slowdown in U.S. economic growth are also increasing uncertainty.
As of 10:26 a.m. on the same day at the New York Stock Exchange, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) was down 9.67 points (0.02%) from the previous session at 42,295.81. The large-cap S&P 500 index was up 9.49 points (0.16%) at 5,945.43, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq index was trading at 19,330.66, up 88.05 points (0.46%).
The market's attention is focused on the tariff negotiations the United States is conducting with China, the European Union (EU), and others. On May 30, U.S. President Donald Trump criticized China for violating a trade agreement previously signed in Geneva and announced that he would speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping. In response, China's Ministry of Commerce asserted that it was the United States that had violated the agreement and declared, "We will take firm and strong measures to protect our legitimate rights and interests." This made it clear that China has no intention of cooperating with the U.S. call for a swift resolution through talks between the two leaders.
The EU is also pushing back against President Trump's announced plan to impose a 50% tariff on steel, demanding that the measure be withdrawn. Regarding the plan to double the current 25% steel tariff, the EU stated that this would "undermine" the ongoing trade negotiations with the United States and declared that it is "prepared to take countermeasures."
Concerns are rising over a potential slowdown in growth due to aggressive tariff policies. On this day, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) revised its forecast for U.S. growth this year to 1.6%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous projection of 2.2%. Alvaro Pereira, Chief Economist at the OECD, said, "Countries need to quickly reach agreements to lower trade barriers," and warned, "Otherwise, the impact on economic growth will be significant and will affect everyone."
Data released in the morning showed that U.S. job openings in April exceeded market expectations, indicating that labor market demand remains robust. According to the U.S. Department of Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs), job openings in April reached 7.391 million, an increase of 191,000 from the previous month (7.2 million). This also significantly exceeded the market forecast of 7.11 million. Despite concerns over tariffs slowing U.S. consumer spending and companies hesitating to hire, the number of job openings has remained solid.
The market is now watching for the U.S. Department of Labor's May employment report, which will be released on June 6. According to a Bloomberg survey, nonfarm payrolls are expected to have increased by 125,000 last month, below April's figure of 177,000. The average monthly job gain over the past three months is estimated at 162,000. The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged from the previous month at 4.2%.
U.S. Treasury yields are weaker, especially at the long end. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, a global bond market indicator, was trading at 4.42%, down 3 basis points (1bp=0.01 percentage point) from the previous day. The yield on the 2-year Treasury, which is sensitive to monetary policy, was unchanged from the previous day at 3.94%.
By stock, Dollar General was up 14.12%. The company attracted strong buying as its first-quarter results beat expectations and it raised its annual outlook. Constellation Energy, a U.S. nuclear power company, was up 3.14% on news that Meta, Facebook's parent company, had signed a 20-year power contract with it. Nvidia was up 2.61%, while Alphabet, Google's parent company, was down 1.24%.
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