Last-Minute Voting Surge Holds the Key
Chance of Returning to 80% Turnout for the First Time in 28 Years
What will be the final voter turnout for the 21st presidential election? Attention is focused on the final turnout for this election, which is being held as an early presidential election.
As of 7:00 p.m. on June 3, the National Election Commission reported a turnout of 77.8%. Out of a total of 44,391,871 eligible voters, 34,553,900 have cast their ballots. With one hour remaining until the polls close, the turnout has already surpassed the final turnout of 77.2% recorded in the previous presidential election.
The fact that there is still one hour left for voting has drawn interest in what the final turnout will be. There are several differences in the election system and operation between this election and the previous one, which is often used as a comparison.
First, the previous presidential election was held after the full five-year term, so voting ended at 6:00 p.m. However, due to the participation of COVID-19 patients in isolation, the final closing time was extended, and voting continued until 7:30 p.m. In contrast, this election is being held as an early presidential election, so voting is scheduled to continue until 8:00 p.m.
Another difference is that in the previous election, early voting was held on Friday and Saturday as usual. However, this time, due to the urgency of holding the election within 60 days following the Constitutional Court’s impeachment decision, early voting was conducted on Thursday and Friday instead.
Because of these differences, it may be difficult to make a simple hour-by-hour comparison. Nevertheless, between 1:00 p.m. and 2:00 p.m., the turnout increased by 3.4 percentage points, but as the evening progressed, the rate of increase slowed. The hourly increases that followed were 3.2 percentage points, 2.8 percentage points, 2.4 percentage points, 2.2 percentage points, and 1.7 percentage points. While there is a possibility of a last-minute surge in voter turnout, if the current trend continues, the final turnout is likely to end in the mid-79% range.
However, such a turnout would be the highest since the 15th presidential election in 1997, when former President Kim Dae-jung was elected, which saw a turnout of 80.7%. Since then, turnout rates were 70.8% (16th), 63.0% (17th), 75.8% (18th), 77.2% (19th), and 77.1% (20th).
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