Peterson Institute for International Economics Report
"Fentanyl Prices Soared Due to Chinese Export Controls... Overdose Deaths Decreased"
A study has found that China's stringent restrictions on fentanyl exports temporarily reduced the number of drug-related deaths in the United States.
On May 23, the South China Morning Post (SCMP), citing a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States, reported that "after China banned the export of fentanyl and its precursor chemicals in 2019, the price of fentanyl in the United States surged," and "as a result, usage was curbed, leading to a decrease of up to 25% in fentanyl-related overdose deaths for a period of three to five months."
In May 2019, China implemented strict fentanyl controls as part of a U.S.-China trade agreement. As a result, the distribution of fentanyl substances was banned unless for medical, industrial, scientific research, or other legitimate purposes. The report estimated that, without China's restrictive measures, up to 947 additional Americans might have died from fentanyl overdoses.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that from May 1 to August 1, 2019, there were 2,254 nationwide deaths due to fentanyl overdoses, and the number increased to 3,807 by October 1. The annual death toll is estimated at 34,268.
The research report stated, "Despite the addictive nature of the drug, users responded to price fluctuations," and added, "When the price increased by 1%, the number of monthly deaths from fentanyl-related overdoses decreased by up to 4%."
However, the institute pointed out that the positive effects of these measures were only temporary. After China implemented its control measures, drug supply routes began shifting to countries such as Mexico.
For example, in 2022, when U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, China refused to engage in fentanyl-related talks with the United States and expressed its unwillingness to cooperate. However, at that time, there was no impact on the fentanyl supply. The report noted, "This indicates that the drug supply network had already shifted to smuggling through third countries."
SCMP emphasized, "As fentanyl production has moved to countries such as Mexico, the United States now needs to broaden its focus beyond China," and added, "The results of this study suggest that in order for the United States to effectively combat fentanyl, international cooperation is needed, not just collaboration with China."
Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid (narcotic painkiller) that is highly addictive and is known for its toxicity, which is more than 50 times greater than heroin.
It is used only in cases of severe pain, such as for terminal cancer patients, but recently, cases of fentanyl overdose deaths have been increasing in the United States. In fact, as of 2023, drug overdose was the leading cause of death among Americans aged 15 to 44. In response, U.S. President Donald Trump, after taking office this year, launched a tariff war against China, citing its lack of active efforts to crack down on fentanyl distribution.
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