[So Jongseop's Honest Interview] Yoon Heeung: "Lee Jaemyung Likely to Achieve Record-High Votes in TK" [AK Radio]

"Kim Moonsoo Likely to Change Position on Former President Yoon"
"TV Debates Crucial for Lee Junseok's Approval Rating Rise"

The presidential election is now 20 days away. Major candidates, including Lee Jaemyung of the Democratic Party, Kim Moonsoo of the People Power Party, and Lee Junseok of the Reform New Party, have begun their campaigns in earnest by canvassing the Daegu-Gyeongbuk and Busan-Gyeongnam regions. How should we interpret the early trends in public opinion during this election season? We asked Yoon Heeung, CEO of Opinions and an expert in public opinion polling. The interview with CEO Yoon took place at 9 a.m. on May 14 in the 'AK Radio' studio of the Asia Economy YouTube channel, located in Chodong, Jung-gu, Seoul.

There are polling results showing candidate Lee Jaemyung's approval rating exceeding the mid-to-high 40% range and even surpassing 50%.

In fact, it is extremely rare for any candidate to exceed 50% in public opinion polls. Even in head-to-head matchups, results showing over 50% are uncommon. This is a phenomenon that has not occurred in the past. When looking solely at the numbers, the criticism that Lee lacks potential for growth due to high unfavorability ratings has lost some of its force.

Yoon Heeung, CEO of Opinions and an expert in public opinion polling, is being interviewed by Asia Economy's 'AK Radio.'

How should we interpret the reasons for this?

Reaching around 40% is possible by consolidating the core base and supporters from one political camp. However, to go well beyond 40%, it requires support from moderates and swing voters who are typically less interested in politics. The 'moderate conservative expansion strategy campaign' has had some effect. There are also unique characteristics in this presidential election.

Unique characteristics?

Presidential elections have generally been viewed as prospective votes, meaning voters choose the candidate they believe will best lead South Korea into the future, rather than simply evaluating or punishing the current administration. However, recently, even presidential elections have taken on a strong retrospective character, focusing on evaluating the current administration. The process in which the Moon Jaein administration ended and Yoon Sukyeol was elected reflected an evaluation and judgment of the Moon administration. In this election as well, because of issues such as martial law and impeachment, the tendency toward judgment is inevitably strong. The fact that the opposition candidate enjoys a premium is one reason for approval ratings exceeding 50%. In the case of Lee, the proportion of voters who say they will "support him until the end" is higher than for other candidates. By age group, those in their 40s and 50s are the core supporters.

There are predictions that upcoming TV debates will be a major variable.

This is indeed an issue that can have a significant impact. However, opinions on the effectiveness of TV debates are divided. While there can be some impact, the reinforcement effect is also known to be considerable. In reality, it is rare for debates to fundamentally overturn the race. However, this time, since Lee Junseok is also participating, there is more attention than usual.

Lee Jaemyung has set a target of 30% of the vote in Daegu and Gyeongbuk. Is there any change in his approval rating in these regions?

In the past, Democratic Party-affiliated presidential candidates received about 20% of the vote in these regions. There has not been a dramatic increase recently. However, there are several factors at play: the conservative candidate has not played his role properly, the candidate was selected late, there is internal confusion, and there has not been a clear position on the impeachment of President Yoon Sukyeol, leading to internal conflict. Depending on how the conservative candidate reorganizes, voter sentiment in the TK region could split. Nevertheless, given current trends, compared to previous elections, the Democratic Party candidate has the highest potential to secure votes in TK.

Is there a possibility that Lee's approval rating could change?

Rather than expecting Lee Jaemyung's approval rating to drop due to mistakes or problems, it is more about whether the conservative candidate can inspire hope and possibility among conservative voters. Currently, the conservative base is not responding enthusiastically. Traditionally, once a candidate is selected, conservatives tend to rally quickly and strongly. Now, however, this process is much slower. Among People Power Party supporters, attracting those who support impeachment is necessary to increase approval ratings. At present, this is not happening sufficiently.

There are calls for the expulsion of former President Yoon or for an apology regarding martial law and impeachment.

Many believe that Kim Moonsoo will not comply with these demands, but I think it could change. No one benefits from low approval ratings. Whether he makes the demand himself or does so through others, there will inevitably be efforts to resolve these issues. According to current polls, Kim Moonsoo's approval rating is lower than the People Power Party's party approval rating. This is a very unusual situation with only 20 days left until the election. Kim Moonsoo has not even managed to consolidate all People Power Party supporters. This issue needs to be addressed, and if the process is too slow, campaign momentum will be delayed. Since the election campaign period is fixed, it is best to move as quickly as possible in the early stages. Depending on Kim's actions, there may be opportunities to accelerate the timeline, which should be closely watched.

From Kim Moonsoo's perspective, what could drive an increase in his approval rating?

First, he needs to consolidate the People Power Party base, then the broader conservative base, and finally reach out to moderates. The lack of a clear position regarding former President Yoon Sukyeol is an obstacle to consolidating party supporters, so this must be addressed. If Lee Jaemyung maintains a solid approval rating around 50%, the remaining 50% will be split between Lee Junseok and Kim Moonsoo. Because the approval ratings of these two candidates have a seesaw relationship, Kim Moonsoo cannot afford to let Lee Junseok's numbers rise. This is why Kim Moonsoo does not mention Lee Junseok. By not engaging with Lee Junseok at all, Kim is employing a strategy to prevent his approval rating from rising. For Kim, it is a battle to manage both Lee Jaemyung and Lee Junseok, which makes the situation quite challenging.

CEO Yoon Heeung viewed that "the approval ratings of candidate Kim Moonsoo and candidate Lee Junseok have a seesaw relationship."

Let's talk about Lee Junseok. Is it possible for Lee Junseok to achieve a double-digit approval rating in the near future?

It is not impossible. Looking at Lee Junseok's supporters, they are not a fixed base. Their intention to vote is lower than that of other age or ideological groups. The challenge for Lee Junseok is whether he can maintain or increase voter turnout until the end. He can only rise if Kim Moonsoo's approval rating drops sharply, which is not easy.

Lee Jaemyung claims he aims to create a 40 (Lee Jaemyung): 40 (Lee Junseok): 20 (Kim Moonsoo) structure.

If approval drops to 20%, the status as a major party is completely lost. This is very unlikely. It is a scenario that is difficult to imagine under normal circumstances. Lee Junseok needs to draw support away from Kim Moonsoo, but this is challenging from a campaign perspective. He should be targeting the leading candidate, but the votes he can actually gain are those currently with Kim Moonsoo.If both must be targeted, resources are dispersed. This is also a challenge for Lee Junseok. He is likely frustrated by this, which is why he is preparing intensively for the TV debate. The most anticipated aspect of the upcoming debate is how well Lee Junseok, for the first time, will showcase his debating skills against the first- and second-place candidates.

What strategies does Lee Junseok need to raise his approval rating?

He is currently sidelined in terms of public attention. Campaigns gain traction when the first- and second-place candidates engage in direct debates. This is how attention increases, but right now, Lee Junseok is restricted. Generating anticipation for the TV debate is crucial. Increasing public interest will amplify the effect. He needs to devise ways to boost public attention.