Three-Way Presidential Race: Lee Jaemyung Leads Outside Margin of Error... Lee 44% vs Han 34%, Lee 43% vs Kim 29% [PollPoll News]

NBS Poll
Democratic Party Support at 38%, People Power Party at 34%
45% Agree vs 47% Disagree with Supreme Court Election Law Ruling

Lee Jaemyung, the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party of Korea, is reported to be leading outside the margin of error in a three-way race for the June 3 presidential election. He holds a significant lead over both Kim Moonsu, the People Power Party candidate, and Han Ducksoo, the independent preliminary candidate, regardless of which of the two he faces in a unified opposition scenario. In terms of general election competitiveness, Han Ducksoo is found to have a slight edge over Kim Moonsu.

According to the National Barometer Survey (NBS) conducted by Embrain Public, KSTAT Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research from May 5 to 7, which surveyed 1,000 men and women aged 18 and older nationwide via mobile phone interviews (with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level and a response rate of 22.1%), Lee Jaemyung received 43% in a three-way contest against Kim Moonsu (29%) and Lee Junseok, the Reform New Party candidate (7%).

Even in a scenario where Han Ducksoo becomes the unified opposition candidate, Lee Jaemyung maintains a lead outside the margin of error, receiving 44% compared to Han Ducksoo's 34% and Lee Junseok's 6%. Regardless of which candidate is unified, Lee Jaemyung leads outside the margin of error (±3.1 percentage points), while Han Ducksoo demonstrates greater general election competitiveness than Kim Moonsu. Regarding the potential unification of Kim Moonsu and Han Ducksoo, who are both considered part of the former ruling bloc, 49% of respondents said unification is necessary, while 35% said it is not. Among People Power Party supporters (n=341), 92% responded that unification is necessary.

In the candidate suitability survey, which lists major potential candidates without assuming any unification, Lee Jaemyung received 43%, Han Ducksoo 23%, Kim Moonsu 12%, Lee Junseok 5%, and 15% responded none or no answer.

Regarding the Supreme Court's decision to remand Lee Jaemyung's violation of the Public Official Election Act for a guilty verdict, 45% of respondents said they agreed with the decision, while 47% said they did not.

In terms of party support, the Democratic Party received 38%, the People Power Party 34%, the Cho Kuk Innovation Party 5%, the Reform New Party 4%, and the Progressive Party 1%.

For more detailed information on the poll, refer to the website of the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission.