[Market ING] KOSPI Recovers 2,500 Level: Will It Climb the Wall of Doubt?

Weekly KOSPI Projected Band: 2,430 to 2,610 Points

The KOSPI has continued its solid upward trend, recovering the 2,500-point level. This week (April 28 to May 2), with a concentration of economic data releases, market attention is expected to focus on these indicators.

Yonhap News

Last week, the KOSPI rose by 2.53% and the KOSDAQ by 1.66%, respectively. Kang Jin-hyuk, a researcher at Shinhan Investment Corp., commented, "Although it is still too early to be completely reassured, the KOSPI has recovered the 2,500-point level for the first time since early April, when tariff noise began with U.S. President Donald Trump, as several risk factors have subsided." He added, "However, there has been differentiation by sector. Industrial stocks (shipbuilding, defense, machinery), which are relatively immune to tariffs, have shown strength, while most domestic-oriented stocks (utilities, consumer staples, retail) have recovered previous declines. Export stocks, however, remain sluggish under the influence of tariffs."

Having passed the peak of uncertainty, the KOSPI is expected to show a stable trend. Lee Sang-jun, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, stated, "Although uncertainty over tariff policy still exists, considering Trump's adjustments in pace, we believe the most volatile period in early to mid-April has passed." He continued, "If signs of economic slowdown appear, a 'Bad is Good' scenario, where the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to implement an accommodative monetary policy, is also possible. It is necessary to prepare for favorable policy momentum that may emerge after the period of fear." NH Investment & Securities suggested a projected KOSPI band of 2,430 to 2,610 points for this week.

Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, remarked, "It is encouraging that the KOSPI is maintaining a solid trend despite lingering anxiety," and added, "The upward trend of the KOSPI could continue to climb the wall of doubt, driven by the recovery of economies outside the United States."

This week, with a concentration of economic data releases, the market is expected to pay close attention to the results. Researcher Lee noted, "With major economic indicators being released this week, market anxiety about the economy is likely to pass a short-term peak." He added, "Following the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index on the 29th, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, favored by the Fed, will be released on the 30th. The U.S. first-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also announced on the same day, is important."

Key events this week include the release of the U.S. April Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index on the 29th; the U.S. first-quarter GDP, U.S. March PCE Price Index, U.S. March personal income, and China's April National Bureau of Statistics Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) on the 30th. On May 1, Korea's April exports, the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, and the May Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monetary Policy Meeting are scheduled. On the 2nd, the U.S. April employment report will be released.

Researcher Lee stated, "The PCE Price Index is expected to slow to 2.2% from 2.5% the previous month. The core PCE is also expected to slow to 2.6% from 2.8% the previous month," and added, "This will confirm that expected inflation is not being transmitted into actual price data."

Major earnings announcements from both U.S. and domestic companies will also continue. On the 29th, Pfizer, GM, and Coca-Cola will release their results; on the 30th, Microsoft (MS) and Meta; and on May 1, Apple and Eli Lilly. Among Korean companies, Hanwha Ocean and LG Household & Health Care will announce results on the 28th; Krafton, HYBE, and Hanwha Systems on the 29th; and Samsung Electronics, Hanwha Aerospace, LG Chem, SK Innovation, and Doosan Enerbility on the 30th will release their first-quarter earnings.

Researcher Kang commented, "In addition to big tech companies (MS, Apple, Meta), consumer-related companies such as Coca-Cola and McDonald's are scheduled to announce their earnings." He added, "Beyond results, it will be important to check future outlooks and capital expenditure guidance."