USGS: "Myanmar Earthquake Death Toll Likely Over 10,000 with 71% Probability"

Shallow Epicenter Raises 35% Probability of Over 100,000 Deaths
Economic Losses May Exceed GDP

An analysis suggests there is over a 70% chance that the death toll from the magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck central inland Myanmar will exceed 10,000.

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated in its final updated report at 12:50 a.m. local Myanmar time on the 29th that the probability of the death toll surpassing 10,000 is 71%.

Collapsed buildings due to the earthquake in Myanmar. [AFP Yonhap News]

USGS analyzed that the probability of more than 100,000 deaths is 36%, while the probability of deaths between 10,000 and 100,000 is 35%. The probabilities for 1,000 to 10,000 deaths and 100 to 1,000 deaths are estimated at 22% and 6%, respectively.

Regarding economic losses, USGS projected a 33% chance that damages will exceed 100 billion dollars (approximately 147 trillion won). This amount surpasses Myanmar's gross domestic product (GDP). Myanmar's GDP is about 66.76 billion dollars (approximately 97.8 trillion won). The probability of economic losses between 10 billion dollars (about 14.7 trillion won) and 100 billion dollars is estimated at 35%, while losses between 1 billion dollars (about 1.47 trillion won) and 10 billion dollars are estimated at 24%.

USGS stated, "This earthquake corresponds to a 'red alert' level for deaths and economic losses caused by shaking," adding, "There is a high likelihood of many casualties, large-scale damage, and widespread disaster."

Earlier, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake struck central inland Myanmar at around 12:50 p.m. on the 28th. The epicenter was near Mandalay, about 16 km northwest of Sagaing, Myanmar, and approximately 200 km north of the capital, Naypyidaw. The focal depth was observed to be about 10 km. The Myanmar military government reported that at least 144 people have died and 732 were injured due to the earthquake as of that day.

In Thailand, about 1,000 km from the epicenter, buildings collapsed in the capital Bangkok, burying over 100 people. Thai authorities estimated that by 10 p.m. that day, at least 10 people had died and dozens were missing.