[Political Spotlight] Lee Jae-myung's 2nd Trial Verdict 'D-1'... What Is the Biggest Hurdle Scenario for the Early Presidential Election?

Acquittal Could Signal Centrist Consolidation
Criticism of Prosecution's Excessive Political Persecution
Conviction Would Spark Debates on Morality and Article 84 of the Constitution
Anti-Lee Faction Likely to Intensify Calls for Candidate Replacement

The second trial verdict on Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, for violating the Public Official Election Act is just a day away, and depending on the outcome, the political landscape is expected to be shaken once again.

According to political and legal circles, Lee will face the second trial for violating the Public Official Election Act on the 26th at the Seoul High Court. The core issue of this trial is whether Lee's statement in a broadcast interview ahead of the 2021 presidential election, in which he said he "did not know" about the late Kim Moon-gi, former head of Development Division 1 at Seongnam Urban Development Corporation and a key figure in the Daejang-dong development project during Lee’s tenure as mayor of Seongnam, constitutes false information disclosure.

The Democratic Party is prepared to strengthen its claim that the prosecution’s investigation is an excessive political persecution if Lee overturns the first trial’s guilty verdict and is acquitted in the second trial. Jeon Hyun-hee, a Supreme Council member and chair of the party’s Judicial Justice Special Committee, has consistently argued that the prosecution’s false indictment violates the principle of legality, so an acquittal could be used as a card to pressure the government and ruling party as a political victim.

A green light is also expected for the consolidation of the centrist voter base following the resolution of judicial risks. It is anticipated that centrists, who value practicality, morality, and rationality, will shift their focus from Lee’s morality to economic and policy issues. Potential candidates from the anti-Lee faction are also likely to lose momentum for running in the presidential election, as the judicial risk?the main basis for calls to replace the candidate?would weaken.

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the first trial hearing of the Wirye, Daejang-dong, Baekhyeon-dong, and Seongnam FC cases held at the Seoul Central District Court on the 25th. 2025.3.25 Photo by Jo Yong-jun

The Democratic Party believes that even a fine under 1 million won would not significantly affect Lee’s presidential campaign. A pro-Lee lawmaker said, "For example, if a fine of about 800,000 won is imposed, the public will think, ‘After hundreds of raids, this is all the result?’"

On the other hand, if Lee receives a guilty verdict with a fine exceeding 1 million won, which results in disqualification from candidacy, he is likely to face immediate pressure from the anti-Lee faction demanding a candidate replacement. If a prison sentence is confirmed, he will lose his parliamentary seat and be disqualified from candidacy for the next 10 years. Although the Supreme Court’s final ruling is still pending, concerns about Lee’s morality could grow ahead of the presidential election, raising questions about his eligibility. Yang Ki-dae, a former lawmaker from the anti-Lee faction, predicted, "If a guilty verdict similar to the first trial is handed down, the feared judicial risk for the party leader will materialize, and the Democratic Party will be greatly shaken."

Intense attacks from the ruling party are also expected. Lee must prepare for the presidential election while simultaneously facing the Supreme Court’s final ruling, burdened with judicial risks. The biggest issue in this case is that controversy surrounding Article 84 of the Constitution may continue even after the presidential election. Article 84 of the Constitution states, "The President shall not be subject to criminal prosecution during the term of office, except in cases of rebellion or treason." Lee claims that "(if elected president) the existing criminal trial will be suspended," but legal circles and the ruling party maintain that trials initiated before the presidency should continue.