[Choi Junyoung's World+] Europe Embarks on Rearmament, Even Nuclear Armament Taboo Is Fading

After the Berlin Wall and Soviet Union Collapsed,
the EU Pursued Continuous Military Downsizing
Reduced Defense Budgets Redirected to Welfare
With Diminished U.S. Support and Rising Russian Threat,
Even Poland Raises the Prospect of Its Own Nuclear Armament

Europe has embarked on rearmament. The sense of crisis, feeling that it is facing the greatest danger since the 1940s, is driving rapid changes. The sudden policy shift of the Trump administration has sparked fears that Europe may have to fight a war against Russia without U.S. support in the future. Trump demands that all security guarantees for Ukraine be borne by European countries without American assistance. He has not clearly stated whether NATO will uphold Article 5, which pledges collective response if a NATO member is attacked from outside. The cost of ignoring geopolitical changes has begun to be paid.

Since the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Europe has pursued continuous military downsizing. It was a change befitting an era of peace. Conscription was abolished in most countries, and defense spending steadily decreased. Over 30 years since 1990, the European Union’s GDP grew by 150%, while various welfare costs increased by 200%. The funds secured by drastically cutting defense budgets were redirected to welfare expenses. European countries, believing that full-scale wars between states like those during the Cold War had disappeared, rapidly reduced heavy and large-scale weapons that required massive operating costs. A representative example is the Netherlands, which once operated over 2,000 modern tanks but scrapped or sold all of them. NATO, a product of the Cold War, survived under the pretext of combating international terrorism, but its necessity was constantly questioned.

Europe deliberately ignored the changing times. In the 21st century, Russia reemerged as an imperial power, but Europe ignored this. Looking back at European history, Russia’s transformation could decisively impact European security, but European leaders relied solely on U.S. security guarantees and did not actively respond. They also ignored the fact that the U.S. was shifting its security focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region due to China’s rapid rise.

French President Emmanuel Macron visited an air force base in eastern France on the 18th (local time) to explain plans to strengthen air force capabilities. AFP·Yonhap News

The U.S. issued several warnings. In 2011, President Obama announced a pivot to Asia and emphasized that Europe must strive to defend itself. The U.S. recommended that countries spend 2% of their GDP on defense, which became a NATO commitment, but European countries ignored it. In 2011, only two countries fulfilled the commitment, and even after 10 years in 2021, only four member states complied. This was because of the belief that the U.S. would defend Europe.

However, the U.S. is now making it clear that it will no longer protect Europe. Since the Eisenhower administration in the 1950s, U.S. presidents have consistently demanded that Europe solve its own problems. Now, after 70 years, as the U.S. truly attempts to withdraw from Europe, Europe is becoming desperate. To defend itself without strong U.S. military support, Europe faces the challenge of securing massive personnel and weapons. To fill the void left by the U.S., Europe needs 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and over 700 self-propelled artillery pieces. Troop numbers must also increase by more than 300,000. This is more personnel and equipment than the combined armies of Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy, the four major European powers.

A sense of crisis is driving change. The European Union, which had been negative about increasing defense spending, announced a defense budget increase amounting to 800 billion euros (approximately 1,236 trillion won). Of this, 150 billion euros will be raised by the EU from private markets and loaned to member states. To secure the remaining 650 billion euros, the EU resorted to a workaround. The EU has allowed member states to run fiscal deficits up to about 3% of GDP annually, penalizing excesses. To avoid cutting social welfare costs or raising taxes to increase defense spending, defense expenditures will be excluded from government spending calculations. This way, if EU member states bear an additional defense burden equivalent to 1.5% of GDP, 650 billion euros can be secured.

Ultimately, this will result in enormous debt, but the EU has judged that it cannot afford to worry about that now. The EU has about 5 to 10 years. Because the Ukrainian military has inflicted significant damage on Russia over three years, Russia needs roughly that amount of time to recover. During this period, Europe must achieve autonomous defense.

The core of European autonomous defense is France and Germany. Germany is the largest economy in Europe, but its government has not spent much on defense and other areas due to strict constitutional limits on fiscal deficits. However, recognizing the changed situation, the German government has shifted its stance. It announced that debt borrowed for defense spending will not be included in government debt, allowing Germany to spend on defense without restrictions.

France is the only EU member state possessing nuclear weapons. However, France has been reluctant to deploy its nuclear arsenal to other European countries. But as the situation changes, France has indicated that Rafale fighters equipped with nuclear bombs could be stationed in countries like Germany. Additionally, Poland, which currently has the largest army in Europe, has unveiled its own nuclear armament card. The taboo against mentioning nuclear weapons in Europe is now disappearing.

Once the European Union, boasting an economy overwhelmingly larger than Russia’s, begins to change in earnest, military balance with Russia can be achieved surprisingly quickly. Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s in nominal GDP terms. Its core technologies and manufacturing capabilities necessary for mass production of advanced weapons are also outdated. The important factor is mindset. The future of Europe and the world will depend on whether Europe can maintain its determination to defend itself and confront the Russian threat head-on.

Choi Jun-young, Specialist at Yulchon LLC (Global Policy and Law)