[Jeongguk Spotlight] 'Opposition Presidential Preparations' Different from Park Geun-hye Era... Reform New Party Presidential Candidate Confirmed

Reform New Party to Confirm Lee Junseok as Candidate on the 18th After Vote
No Official Early Presidential Election Discussions in Democratic Party and Others
Different Environment Compared to Impeachment Eight Years Ago

As the Constitutional Court's ruling on the impeachment trial of President Yoon Seok-yeol approaches, the Reform New Party among the parliamentary parties will confirm its early presidential election candidate on the 18th. This contrasts with the ruling parties such as the Democratic Party and the People Power Party, which place more weight on caution to the extent that the term "early presidential election" is considered taboo.

On the 18th, the Reform New Party will announce the results of the two-day vote held since the 16th on whether to support presidential candidate Lee Jun-seok. Among the parliamentary parties, the Reform New Party is the only one to have activated the presidential candidate selection process and entered an election mode.

The vote was essentially a formality, and the Reform New Party is expected to shift to a central party election campaign committee system centered on candidate Lee Jun-seok. Given its weak party base, the Reform New Party plans to lead the election atmosphere by putting the candidate's pledges and messages at the forefront rather than wasting time on a primary.

What draws attention is that the major parties' presidential election schedules differ from the early presidential election preparations eight years ago. Former President Park Geun-hye was impeached and removed from office through the Constitutional Court's ruling on March 10, 2017, and at that time, the opposition parties prepared for the election in advance. Then Democratic Party leader Choo Mi-ae declared on January 5, two months before the impeachment ruling, "Now it is time for the Democratic Party to answer the people's questions about the 'post-impeachment' period," and announced, "We will begin preparations for the presidential election within the party."

Reform New Party lawmaker Lee Jun-seok is giving a lecture at a talk concert titled "Asking the Future of Korean Politics" held on the 17th at Seoul National University in Gwanak-gu, Seoul. Photo by Yonhap News

Subsequently, the Democratic Party recruited a national electorate from February 15 and held preliminary debates among candidates on March 3 and 6. The Justice Party, which was also a parliamentary party at the time, declared its presidential election preparations on January 9 and completed its candidate selection process by February 16. The Bareun Party also finalized its primary rules on March 3, before the impeachment ruling, and proceeded with candidate registration.

However, this time, neither the People Power Party nor the Democratic Party shows any official movement related to an early presidential election. Recently, the Jo Guk Innovation Party proposed an integrated primary (open primary) for opposition presidential candidates, but except for the Reform New Party, no party has yet begun concrete election preparations. A key Democratic Party official told Asia Economy, "The issue of primaries has never been officially discussed."

As the Constitutional Court's impeachment ruling nears, the Democratic Party and others are expected to begin official discussions after confirming the impeachment result. In the past, the Liberty Korea Party formed a presidential primary management committee and shifted to an early presidential election system the day after the impeachment was upheld, so it is highly likely that the Democratic Party and others will follow a similar timeline.

Regarding the political schedule differing from previous years, political circles explain that the environment itself is different. Eight years ago, it was widely accepted that the impeachment would be upheld, but now the views of the ruling and opposition parties sharply diverge.

Additionally, while former President Park Geun-hye had less than a year remaining in her term before the impeachment ruling, President Yoon Seok-yeol has more than two years left in his term, which also makes parties hesitant to enter an early presidential election. Although potential candidates within the People Power Party continue their moves, officially, the early presidential election remains a taboo topic.

The political landscape within the opposition is also noteworthy. Unlike leader Choo Mi-ae eight years ago, current Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung, who is responsible for party affairs, is himself a presidential candidate. A variable is that he must step down from his leadership position to participate in the presidential primary.

From Lee's perspective, who is leading in party internal polls, setting a short primary schedule is seen as a choice to reduce variables. The Jo Guk Innovation Party, as the third parliamentary party, faces the reality that former leader Jo Guk cannot run, forcing them to redraw their presidential election blueprint.