Tension Looms Over Taiwan Contrary to Ceasefire Atmosphere in Ukraine [AK Radio]

U.S. Deletes "Does Not Support Taiwan Independence" Statement
A Turning Point in U.S.-China Relations
Taiwan Responds to Security Concerns
Increases Defense Budget and Considers $10 Billion U.S. Arms Purchase

The U.S. Department of State recently removed the phrase "does not support Taiwan independence" from its official website, marking a new phase in U.S.-China relations. This phrase symbolized the "One China" policy, which has been the fundamental principle governing Taiwan-related issues between the two countries since the establishment of diplomatic relations in 1979. The deletion of this phrase after 44 years is expected to become a significant turning point in U.S.-China relations.

At that time, the U.S. severed formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan upon establishing relations with China, and Taiwan relinquished its permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council to China, resulting in its expulsion from the UN. The phrase indicating non-support for Taiwan independence was a symbolic expression of the friendly relations between the U.S. and China, so the impact of its removal is anticipated to be considerable.

In particular, Taiwan's current President Lai Ching-te is known as a more hardline pro-independence figure compared to previous leaders. Recently, he announced plans to increase the defense budget to over 3% of GDP, which is expected to further escalate tensions with China. President Lai has openly opposed the One China principle, stating that "China and Taiwan have no historical ties." Such strong remarks have provoked a strong backlash from China.

Experts interpret the Trump administration's move as a strategic maneuver to gain leverage in trade negotiations with China. The prevailing interpretation is that the U.S. intends to use Taiwan as a lever to pressure China. However, China has strongly opposed this move, expressing concerns that it could further embolden Taiwan's independence efforts.

Reuters·Yonhap News

While the Taiwanese government has outwardly expressed gratitude for the U.S. move, it is reportedly monitoring the Ukraine situation closely and remains tense internally. Particularly, there is concern over Ukraine being completely excluded from ceasefire negotiations, raising fears that Taiwan could face a similar situation if it fails to meet U.S. demands. These concerns have led to a cautious response from the Taiwanese government.

Accordingly, Taiwan is showing a proactive willingness to cooperate with the U.S. and is considering importing weapons worth approximately $10 billion (about 14 trillion KRW) from the U.S. Additionally, Taiwan has shifted into negotiation mode regarding economic demands such as the acquisition of Intel shares by TSMC, as requested by the Trump administration. This decision reflects the security anxieties Taiwan is facing.

Moreover, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Rubio recently warned in Congress about the possibility of China invading Taiwan within the next five years. Military experts have consistently raised concerns about a potential invasion around 2027, coinciding with the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People's Liberation Army. In response, the U.S. is focusing on strengthening Taiwan's "hedgehog strategy." The hedgehog strategy refers to building defensive capabilities to a level that would inflict fatal losses on an invading enemy, deterring them from initiating war.

On the 14th (local time), Lai Ching-te, the President of Taiwan, held a press conference to announce trade policies with the United States and plans to expand investment in the U.S. Photo by AP and Yonhap News

However, the Trump administration has yet to clarify its stance on deploying U.S. troops in the event of a contingency. This contrasts with the Biden administration, which has strengthened joint training with Japan in preparation for a Taiwan contingency and is constructing missile bases near Okinawa, signaling a likelihood of military involvement. President Trump has expressed a negative stance toward direct military intervention, deepening Taiwan's concerns.

Security experts predict that the Trump administration will use defense issues as a bargaining chip in semiconductor trade negotiations with Taiwan. This strategy of linking security and trade raises concerns that it could fundamentally change the traditional U.S. alliance strategy. In particular, if allied countries lose trust in the U.S. security commitments, it may become difficult for the U.S. to receive support from allies when facing actual security threats in the future.

Within the U.S., concerns about this strategy of linking security and trade are growing. Experts warn that while this approach may provide short-term advantages in trade negotiations, it could weaken U.S. global leadership and alliance systems in the long term. Some predict that a return to traditional alliance policies will be inevitable under the next administration or subsequent governments.