[Political Spotlight] Why Did Lee Jae-myung Bring Up 'Moderate Conservatism'?

Consolidating the Centrist Bloc Ahead of the Presidential Election and Judicial Risks
Confident Rightward Shift Amid the Collapse of Progressive Parties

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, stated, "We are a centrist conservative party," a remark that Yeouido political circles view as unlikely to be a mere mistake that sparked ideological debate. It is seen as a deliberate statement, fully anticipating that it could intensify identity controversies.

In fact, the People Power Party criticized Lee as a "fake conservative." The anti-Lee faction within the Democratic Party (non-Lee faction) condemned it as "overstepping." It is also noteworthy that Lee is trying not to let the party identity controversy fade away as a volatile issue. The day after his remark, he even brought up the "history of the Democratic Party," elevating the debate to a political hot topic.

Lee's statement, "We are not originally a progressive party," is not entirely incorrect on the surface. In the full 1,700-character party platform submitted to the National Election Commission, the word "progressive" does not appear anywhere. The platform’s first paragraph states the party identity as "inheriting the democratic spirit of the April 19 Revolution, Bu-Ma Democratic Uprising, May 18 Democratization Movement, June 10 Democratic Uprising, and the Candlelight Citizen Revolution, representing the working class and middle class."

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the trial for charges related to the Public Official Election Act at the Seoul High Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul on the 19th. 2025.2.19. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung

The key question is why the centrist conservative theory was raised at this point. Some view it as a strategic move in anticipation of an early presidential election. Lee is currently considered the most likely presidential candidate across both ruling and opposition parties. However, his judicial risk remains an unresolved issue. Lee has painful memories related to judicial risk controversies. In the 2021 Democratic Party presidential primary’s third electoral college vote, the Daejang-dong scandal erupted, resulting in a low vote share of 28.3%. This was far below former leader Lee Nak-yeon’s 62.3%. Although Lee was ultimately selected as the candidate, this case confirmed that judicial risks could influence voter sentiment.

This is why some interpret Lee’s promotion of the centrist conservative theory as an exit strategy from judicial risks. Political commentator Park Sang-byeong said, "The biggest point to watch in Lee’s election law appeal trial is if he is found guilty without losing his eligibility to run," adding, "Within the party, especially among the non-Lee faction, there will be immediate calls for candidate replacement."

Another analysis is that Lee’s strengthening of the centrist conservative theory is backed by his high support among centrist voters. According to a preference survey for future political leaders released by Gallup Korea on the 14th, 31% of respondents with centrist tendencies supported Lee, the highest rate. This surpasses ruling party hopefuls such as Kim Moon-soo (10%), Oh Se-hoon (3%), Han Dong-hoon (5%), and Hong Joon-pyo (3%). (The margin of error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission website.)

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is attending the trial for charges related to the Public Official Election Act at the Seoul High Court in Seocho-gu, Seoul on February 19, 2025. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung

It is also noteworthy that the Justice Party, the leading progressive party, failed to enter the National Assembly in the last general election. An opposition lawmaker said in a phone interview, "The remaining alternative for progressives is ultimately the Democratic Party," adding, "For Lee, the 30% progressive base is like the home turf."

While some view a rightward shift as useful for presidential election strategy, there are also significant criticisms that it could shake Lee’s original identity and ultimately undermine his credibility. Lee emerged as a figure of interest on the central political stage when he declared his candidacy for the 2017 presidential election after the impeachment of former President Park Geun-hye. He garnered 21.2% of the vote in the party primary. Although he was not selected as the presidential candidate, he laid the groundwork for forming the "pro-Lee faction." At that time, Lee attracted attention by proposing progressive policies such as the New Deal policy and a 300,000 won land dividend.

On March 19, 2017, Moon Jae-in, then a Democratic Party presidential primary candidate, sharply criticized Lee during the fifth joint debate, saying, "Candidate Lee often advocates progressivism but also says, ‘I am a conservative.’" The doubts surrounding Lee both inside and outside the party are a political burden. Hong Hyung-sik, director of Hangil Research, diagnosed, "Politician Lee Jae-myung’s lineage within the Democratic Party is unclear. To put it positively, he is flexible; negatively, he lacks credibility. Even if the message is good, if the messenger’s credibility is not secured, good policies may not have the expected effect."