Bloomberg "Survey Results, South Korea's Growth Forecast for This Year Revised from 1.8% to 1.6%"

Survey of 39 Economists Reveals
Inflation Rate Projected at 2%
Bank of Korea Also Lowers GDP Growth Forecast

Global economists have lowered South Korea's growth forecast for this year to 1.6%.

According to Bloomberg on the 13th, a survey of 39 economists on South Korea's growth forecast for this year showed that the median value dropped from the previous 1.8% to 1.6%.

The economists also forecast that South Korea's inflation rate this year will be 2%, slightly higher than the previous estimate of 1.9%.

The Bank of Korea last month revised down its GDP growth forecast for South Korea this year from 1.9% to 1.6%?1.7%. The Bank of Korea explained that it lowered the forecast due to political uncertainty triggered by the emergency martial law situation, weakened economic sentiment, and reduced consumption. The Bank of Korea is scheduled to hold a Monetary Policy Committee meeting on the 25th to decide the base interest rate, with attention focused on whether it will resume rate cuts. The market largely expects the Monetary Policy Committee to lower rates this month, citing concerns over export slowdown and consumption stagnation.

Many expected that the Bank of Korea, which kept rates steady last month, would resume rate cuts this month. However, Bloomberg reported that the outlook became uncertain after Lee Chang-yong, Governor of the Bank of Korea, emphasized the government's fiscal role and the intention to protect the value of the won in an interview with Bloomberg TV last week. In the interview, Governor Lee stated that it is not inevitable for the Bank of Korea to cut rates again at this meeting.

Adam Samdin, an economist at Oxford Economics, said, "Due to uncertainties in U.S. trade policy, exchange rates, and inflation concerns, the expected timing for the Bank of Korea's rate cut has been pushed back from February," adding, "If the domestic economic growth weight is considered more significantly than other issues, there remains a possibility of an earlier-than-expected rate cut this month."