Greenland's Card for Independence Desire [Trump X Greenland]

Greenland Expresses Willingness for Economic Cooperation with the U.S.
Possibility of Investment in Resource Development Opens
Timing of Independence Announcement Likely to Be Influenced by Incentives

Editor's NoteGreenland, a frozen land with a population of about 56,000, is rapidly emerging as a new arena for power competition. As climate change melts the glaciers covering Greenland, the Northern Sea Route has opened, and the extraction of underground resources buried nearby has become possible, increasing both its military and economic value. When U.S. President Donald Trump openly revealed his territorial expansion ambitions to seize Danish Greenland, Denmark responded by pledging to invest 3 trillion won in Arctic defense spending. The Greenlandic people's desire for independence is more heightened than ever. Ahead of the early general election in March, we examine Greenland's political situation and the intentions of the global powers surrounding it.

Due to Donald Trump's ambitions, the Greenlandic government has gained a much better card before independence. Greenland is expected to clearly weigh the pros and cons. The general election scheduled for April has also been moved up by a month. This is because Greenland can demand practical benefits from the United States in exchange for allowing resource development, as well as reset its relationship with Denmark, to which it belongs as an autonomous territory. There is a prospect that the timing of independence could change depending on the proposals the U.S. puts forward.

The Greenlandic government has clearly stated that it "is willing to cooperate economically with the United States but has no intention of being incorporated as U.S. territory." In fact, public opinion in Greenland is also negative toward the U.S. According to a survey conducted at the end of last month by the polling agency Berian, commissioned by the Danish daily Berlingske, 85% of Greenlanders opposed incorporation into the United States. Only 6% responded in favor.

Donald Trump, President of the United States. Photo by AP Yonhap News

Nevertheless, the United States has not backed down from its intention to purchase Greenland. This is interpreted as the U.S. aiming to expand its influence over Greenland in some way, whether through resource development or military expansion. U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance appeared on Fox News on the 2nd and reiterated that "President Trump does not care about Europeans yelling at us," emphasizing that Greenland is essential for security. In the process, he sparked controversy by claiming, "Frankly, Denmark, which controls Greenland, is not doing its job and is not a good ally."

The timing of Greenland's demand for independence from Denmark could be accelerated or delayed depending on what incentives the United States offers. The timing and direction of Greenland's independence are expected to hinge on how concretely the U.S. government presents options for the Greenlandic people.

Dr. Choi Jun-young, Senior Specialist at the law firm Yulchon, said, "Even if Greenland remains under the U.S. umbrella, residents are well aware that places like Puerto Rico and Guam do not enjoy legal status similar to the U.S. mainland. Therefore, Greenlanders will only declare independence once there is a clear conclusion about the incentives that can be provided to them." The Danish government provides Greenlanders with various welfare benefits such as education and healthcare, similar to those on the Danish mainland, in addition to subsidies.

M?te Egede, Prime Minister of the Greenland Self-Government. Photo by Reuters Yonhap News

If the Greenland independence issue is not easily resolved, the United States may ultimately play the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) card. Dr. Choi predicted that the U.S. might pressure Denmark and Greenland by threatening to withdraw from NATO.

Although the U.S. military operates an air and space base at Greenland's northernmost point, it could threaten European countries by mentioning NATO withdrawal or U.S. troop reductions within this year. If the U.S. military scale is reduced, Russia and China's influence in the Arctic region could increase. Dr. Choi said, "The U.S. still considers Greenland, which belongs to the Western Hemisphere, within its sphere of influence," adding, "The U.S. is expected to make statements related to NATO within this year, and regardless of how Denmark or Greenland respond, the U.S. will try to act as it pleases."