[News Terms] 'Korean Peninsula' Selected as One of the Top 10 Conflicts This Year... "Possibility of Kim Jong-un's Miscalculation"

ICG, First Korean Selection Since 2015 Announcement
North-Russia Relations, Martial Law and Impeachment Approval Discussed
Kim Jong-un's Potential Provocations Due to Miscalculations Highlighted

The Korean Peninsula was named as one of the top 10 conflicts to watch this year. The international conflict-focused think tank, the International Crisis Group (ICG), included the "Korean Peninsula" in its list of "10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025," released on the 1st (local time).

This organization has been publishing a list of the top 10 conflicts on its website since 2015, but this is the first time the Korean Peninsula has been included. Although "North Korea" was first named in 2018 and "the United States and North Korea" were ranked seventh in 2020, South Korea had never been included in the conflict list. Reviewing past selections, countries with prolonged civil wars such as Afghanistan and Sudan, or sharp interstate conflicts involving countries like China and the United States, have appeared on the list.

Top 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2025
[Photo by International Crisis Group (ICG)]

ICG ranked the Korean Peninsula ninth among the top 10 conflicts, stating, "Amid many changes, the Korean Peninsula is facing a highly tense 2025." The selection was based on North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un severing peace and unification policies with South Korea last year and dispatching troops to the Russia-Ukraine war, thereby strengthening ties with Russia. Meanwhile, in South Korea, President Yoon Suk-yeol’s failure of the December 3 emergency martial law and the National Assembly’s passage of an impeachment motion were cited as reasons.

ICG noted that with communication between North and South Korea virtually cut off and tensions escalating, there are almost no options available to manage any potential incidents.

Additionally, while Russia is unlikely to provide nuclear weapons technology to North Korea due to concerns about China’s backlash, U.S. intelligence suggests that Russia appears to have promised fighter jets. It also assessed that Russia might assist with missile technology capable of carrying multiple warheads.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un [Photo by Yonhap News]

ICG analyzed that "the return of Donald Trump as U.S. president has added further uncertainty." Although the possibility of Trump abolishing the U.S.-South Korea Mutual Defense Treaty or withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea is low, he may demand that South Korea pay a larger share of defense costs. Consequently, ICG predicted that voices advocating for South Korea to possess its own nuclear weapons will grow among Koreans.

It further pointed out, "If the U.S. adopts an ambiguous stance toward the U.S.-South Korea alliance, it risks emboldening Chairman Kim Jong-un even more." While acknowledging that Kim Jong-un is unlikely to initiate full-scale war given threats to his survival, ICG foresaw the possibility of provocations due to miscalculations. In such a case, the U.S. and its allies would face pressure to respond, ICG analyzed.

Meanwhile, besides the Korean Peninsula, ICG selected the following conflicts to watch this year: Syria; Sudan; Ukraine and Europe; Israel-Palestine; Iran versus the U.S. and Israel; Haiti; the U.S. and Mexico; Myanmar; and China and the U.S.

ICG stated, "Considering that the root causes of each conflict differ, it is difficult to generalize the factors causing this turmoil," while assessing that "China, Russia, and North Korea are challenging the order maintained for decades in Asia and Europe based on U.S. power."

This content was produced with the assistance of AI translation services.