Preliminary investigation results indicate that the crash of the Azerbaijani passenger plane, which killed 38 people, was caused by a Russian missile. Earlier, U.S. government officials had also suggested the possibility that the Russian air defense system mistakenly shot it down.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 26th (local time) that Azerbaijani authorities concluded in their preliminary investigation that the passenger plane was hit by a Russian surface-to-air missile or its fragments. Sources said Russia rerouted the passenger plane away from its airspace and jammed its GPS.
The crashed Azerbaijani Airlines flight J2 8243 had departed from Baku, Azerbaijan, the previous day, heading to Grozny, Russia. However, it changed its route mid-flight and crashed near Aktau in western Kazakhstan. The accident resulted in 38 deaths out of 67 passengers onboard. After the crash, video and images of the plane showed holes in the fuselage.
The theory that the plane was mistakenly shot down by Russia had been raised even before the Azerbaijani authorities’ preliminary investigation. The airspace over Russia’s North Caucasus, through which the plane was flying, had been targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks in recent weeks. Notably, this crash occurred shortly after Ukraine launched drone attacks on southern Russia. The Russian Ministry of Defense announced that it had shot down 59 Ukrainian drones by the previous night.
In response, the U.S. and others suggested the possibility that the passenger plane was shot down by the Russian air defense system, citing that the air defense network was active in Grozny at the time. According to CNN and others, a U.S. official stated, "There are signs that Russia’s air defense network attacked the Azerbaijani aircraft."
Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council, also claimed on social media that the passenger plane was shot down by the Russian air defense system. He pointed out, "The passenger plane was damaged by Russia and made an emergency landing in Grozny to save lives, but was then sent to Kazakhstan."
Experts also analyzed that the multiple holes found on the tail section of the crashed plane appeared to be the result of a missile or air defense system activation. Major foreign media noted that examining the intact tail section reveals impact marks and small holes consistent with those caused by surface-to-air missile defense systems.
Ruslan Leviev of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), a nonprofit organization tracking Russian military activities, pointed out, "The holes in the aircraft fuselage are very similar to the impact caused by projectiles launched from air-to-air missiles and surface-to-air missiles fired from air defense systems like the Pantsir-S1." The British aviation security company Osprey Flight Solutions also analyzed the crash footage, aircraft damage, and recent military activities, concluding that the passenger plane was likely hit by some type of anti-aircraft weapon.
However, Russia has so far distanced itself from these preliminary investigation results. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on the day, "We are currently investigating the cause of the crash, and it is wrong to speculate before a conclusion is reached." Earlier, Russian aviation authorities claimed that the passenger plane crashed after colliding with a flock of birds during flight.
Kazakhstan, where the plane crashed, has also taken a cautious stance regarding the shootdown theory. Kanat Bozumbayev, Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan and chairman of the accident investigation committee, explained regarding suspicions that the plane was shot down by the Russian air defense system, "We have not received official information from either the Russian or Azerbaijani governments. Therefore, we cannot confirm or deny this."
WSJ also pointed out the possibility of worsening relations between Russia and Azerbaijan due to this accident. Zaur Siriev, a researcher at the Carnegie Mellon Eurasia Center, analyzed, "Azerbaijan wants not only a simple apology from Russia but also an explanation for why the pilots’ landing requests were denied and why the GPS was jammed."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
