[US Election 2024] Village Known for Decades of Accurate Presidential Predictions, This Year’s Voter Sentiment Revealed

Small but Reflecting US Diversity in Regional Composition
Close Contest Remains in Fog Until the Final Moments

As the U.S. presidential election approaches, a closely contested race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is drawing attention to certain regions. These are the so-called bellwether counties, known for accurately predicting the outcome of U.S. presidential elections for decades.

CBS News identified Door County in Wisconsin as a place that has correctly predicted every presidential election result this century. Since Bill Clinton's victory in 1996, the citizens here have picked the winner in every election. Notably, in the 2020 election, President Joe Biden won by a margin of just 292 votes.

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

The population is about 30,000, with 92% white residents, but politically it is considered diverse. Joel Kitchens, a Republican, explained, "There are many people from urban and suburban areas, and many retirees. We have a strong agricultural community and heavy industry as well." He added, "As you drive along the lakeshore and coast, you can see that while there are wealthy people, many are also struggling."

Clallam County in Washington State is also one of the 'bellwether' counties. Since Ronald Reagan's election in 1980, it has correctly picked every presidential winner, totaling 11 presidents. While Washington State leans Democratic, Clallam County has voted for Republican candidates such as Dwight Eisenhower (1952 and 1956), Ronald Reagan (1980 and 1984), and Donald Trump (2016).

Northampton County in Pennsylvania, a battleground state with the largest number of 19 electoral votes, is also a political barometer reflecting voter sentiment in U.S. presidential elections. Since 1920, it has missed predicting the winner only three times (1968, 2000, and 2004). It supported former President Barack Obama in both 2008 and 2012, then voted for former President Trump in 2016. Four years ago, President Biden won this county by a margin of 1,200 votes, less than 1 percentage point difference.

Northampton County is a small county with a population of just 310,000 as of 2020. Two mid-sized cities, Easton and Bethlehem, lean strongly Democratic, while the surrounding rural areas have a strong Republican presence. Once home to Bethlehem Steel, the world's second-largest steel company, which closed in 2003, it is part of the 'Rust Belt' region. The overall number of registered voters is roughly evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, reflecting the diversity of the entire United States. Income levels are also very diverse.

Lamont McClure, the chief administrative officer of Northampton County, said, "The demographics of our county are very similar to those of Pennsylvania as a whole," adding, "The way we vote generally reflects how the rest of Pennsylvania votes." He also noted, "People from China and Europe come to interview our process as if they are reading tea leaves."

Erie County in Pennsylvania is called the "largest battleground within the battleground state." It has 177,000 registered voters. After voting twice for President Obama, it narrowly voted for former President Trump in 2016 by less than 2,000 votes. In 2020, President Biden won by fewer than 1,500 votes.

This year, with the race expected to be tight until the end, the voter sentiment in these 'bellwether' regions remains uncertain. The New York Post reported that Signal, a polling organization, conducted a survey of 420 voters in Erie County and Northampton County on September 30 and October 1. The results showed former President Trump with 49% support and Vice President Harris with 48% support.