[Interview] Kim Dong-seok, Who Predicted Trump's 2016 Election Victory... "The Trump Era Will Come Again"

[2024 US Presidential Election]⑤
Kim Dong-seok, Representative of the Korean American Voter Coalition
Outcome Decided by a Narrow Margin of 1~2%P
Trump's Chances of Re-election Increasing
Shy Trump Supporters Unite and Economic Issues Take the Lead
Pennsylvania Again a Key Battleground
Whoever Wins, 'America First'
Need to Establish Short- and Long-term US Strategies

"With about 20 days left until the U.S. presidential election, the possibility of former President Donald Trump's return to power is high. We must thoroughly prepare for the potential launch of the second Trump administration under the slogan 'MAGA (Make America Great Again)."

Kim Dong-seok, head of the Korean American Voters Coalition (KAGC), said in an interview with Asia Economy on the 15th (local time), "The support rates in the seven battleground states are extremely close, but the 'shy Trump' vote is consolidating, and as the election approaches, economic issues favorable to Trump are becoming more important."

The U.S. presidential election scheduled for November 5 is shaping up to be extremely close. Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate former President Trump are tied at 48% nationwide (NBC News poll) and also tied at 49% in the seven battleground states (ABC News poll). With three weeks left until the election, it is expected that the outcome could be decided by a margin of 1 to 2 percentage points.

Kim Dong-seok, president of the Korean American Voters Coalition (KAGC), is being interviewed by Asia Economy on the outlook for the 2024 U.S. presidential election at the office in Fort Lee, New Jersey, on the 15th (local time). New York ? Photo by Kwon Haeyoung

Kim said, "For Harris to win, she needs to demonstrate the qualities, abilities, and vision of a president, and there must be an 'October surprise'?such as effective hurricane response or easing tensions in the Middle East?that can bring in voter support. It will also be crucial how much support she can get from conservative white men as well as Black men."

However, he believes that regardless of which candidate wins, the broad 'America First' policy stance will become the new normal. He emphasized, "Democrats and Republicans are cooperating across party lines in diplomacy, security, and trade, so the America First stance will continue for the time being. The South Korean government must thoroughly prepare for a changed America where it is no longer easy to expect leadership based on tolerance."

Kim has participated in Washington politics for over 30 years through voter movements that consolidate Korean American political power to influence the U.S. Congress. He has close ties with Washington figures, including David Pluff, known as the 'Obama Kingmaker' who was a key figure in Barack Obama's 2008 election victory and who joined the Harris campaign this time. In 2007, he helped pass the U.S. Congressional resolution on comfort women and led efforts to introduce the U.S.-Korea visa waiver program. In the 2016 election, he predicted Trump's victory. Below is a Q&A with Kim.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

- What are the characteristics of the 2024 U.S. presidential election?

▲ This election is the most closely watched not only in the U.S. but worldwide. The world will change dramatically depending on whether Trump returns to power. While both Democrats and Republicans share the America First stance, Trump differs in that he is willing to do whatever benefits America regardless of values. The world is fearful of Trump. It is also the smallest election in history. The support rates of the two candidates are extremely close, and even if one candidate shows an advantage, it is within the margin of error, making the outcome hard to predict. Therefore, both sides campaign only in regions where they can win. Among battleground states, strategic campaigns are focused on certain counties in Pennsylvania and Michigan, making this the smallest election in scale.

- Who do you predict will win between Harris and Trump?

▲ At this point, Trump is more likely to win. Harris's support peaked right after her first joint campaign with running mate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz in Philadelphia on August 6, but it did not translate into securing votes in battleground states. After the September 10 TV debate, there was no increase in support in battleground states. The Rust Belt battleground states?Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan?are must-win areas, but Harris's support has stagnated, causing concern in her camp. The Democrats especially fear the 'shy Trump' phenomenon in Pennsylvania, the largest battleground state. Traditionally a Democratic stronghold, many shy Trump supporters are among the lower-middle-class white workers who lost jobs due to manufacturing decline. Economic issues, where Trump is relatively well-regarded, are most important in Pennsylvania. Harris needs to surpass the margin of error and gain a lead to have a chance of winning. The current atmosphere is similar to when Trump won in 2016.

- Why is Pennsylvania important?

▲ The U.S. election is a battle over seven battleground states. Twenty states are solidly Democratic (Harris), and 23 states are solidly Republican (Trump), determining the election outcome. Among the seven battleground states, the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan) usually leans Democratic, while the Sun Belt in the South (Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina) usually leans Republican, but the atmosphere is changing. Pennsylvania has the largest number of electoral votes among battleground states with 19, making it essential for both candidates to win. Both sides will focus on Pennsylvania during the remaining election period. (In the 2016 election, Trump won Pennsylvania by a margin of 0.72 percentage points, securing its electoral votes and winning the presidency, while in 2020, President Joe Biden won Pennsylvania by 1.17 percentage points to enter the White House.)

- What is the top policy issue influencing voters' decisions?

▲ The top priority is the economy. The key is winning over undecided voters, for whom livelihood issues are most important. Recent polls show that Trump is rated about 10 percentage points higher than the Biden-Harris administration in economic policy performance. The next important issue is immigration policy. Many voters perceive that illegal immigration threatens the economy and safety of major cities. Trump also leads by about 10 percentage points in immigration policy evaluations. Following these are abortion (reproductive rights) and environmental issues. Both of the two most important policy issues for voters favor Trump.

Kim Dong-seok, president of the Korean American Grassroots Coalition (KAGC), is being interviewed by Asia Economy on the outlook for the 2024 U.S. presidential election at the office in Fort Lee, New Jersey, USA, on the 15th (local time). New York ? Photo by Kwon Haeyoung

- Is there a possibility that Harris's support will rise?

▲ Harris needs to demonstrate that she has unique abilities, qualities, and vision that differentiate her from President Biden. She dominated Trump in the September TV debate, but that is all. She must be evaluated on what she will do in her first term, not Biden's second term. If the Biden administration responds well to hurricanes and calms Middle East tensions, creating an 'October surprise,' her support could increase.

- What are the major variables and points to watch until the U.S. election?

▲ One major variable is whether America is ready to elect a Black female president. While there has been a Black president, there has not yet been a female president. The glass ceiling remains. Whether male voters will actually vote for Harris at the polls is crucial. Even Democratic-leaning white men and Black men might not vote for a female president. Some women might also not vote for Harris simply because she is a woman. Trump's negative attacks are expected to intensify. Trump's supporters will vote for him no matter what, so their support is stable. In contrast, Harris's support is relatively loose and volatile. Trump's goal is to attract undecided voters to his side and cause defections among Harris supporters. He is likely to focus on negative campaigning against Harris in the remaining period. Also, in 2020, during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, early voting reached 70% due to social distancing, but this year it is expected to be much lower. Since early voting has traditionally favored Democrats, this year's turnout and its impact on the election are also points to watch.

- How should South Korea formulate its strategy toward the U.S. after the election?

▲ Regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins, the broad America First stance remains the same in diplomacy, security, trade, and all policies. Trump, who champions MAGA, has already been a presidential candidate three times, and America is already halfway through the Trump era. Rather than weighing pros and cons by candidate, South Korea should establish short- and long-term strategies based on the premise of a changed America where leadership based on tolerance is no longer expected. However, if Harris wins, there is a difference in that policy continuity can be relatively maintained based on the relationships built during the Biden administration. If Trump wins, he is likely to use America's leverage in areas such as defense cost-sharing and trade to pressure South Korea in a transactional manner. The government should expand networks with both candidates, but since both camps are watching, it should act actively but discreetly behind the scenes rather than openly.