The possibility of war on the Korean Peninsula is being discussed again among experts in the United States.
Robert Manning, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, expressed concerns about the likelihood of North Korea initiating a war by leveraging its nuclear capabilities in an article titled "The Risk of Another Korean War Is Higher Than Ever" published on Foreign Policy (FP) on the 7th (local time).
This is in line with earlier remarks made in January by North Korea experts Robert Carlin of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and Dr. Siegfried Hecker in a 38 North article, where they pointed out that "the situation on the Korean Peninsula is more dangerous than at any time since early June 1950."
In his article, Manning stated, "Having dealt with the North Korean nuclear issue inside and outside the U.S. government for the past 30 years, the Korean Peninsula appears more dangerous and unstable than at any time since 1950," adding, "While war does not seem imminent, North Korea is increasing the likelihood of dramatic actions within the next 6 to 18 months." He noted ongoing unusual developments such as close military cooperation between North Korea and Russia and Kim Jong-un’s designation of the relationship as a 'hostile two-state relationship.'"
Manning also cited a report released last year by the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) titled "North Korea: Nuclear Weapon Use Scenarios Through 2030," which discusses a scenario of a North Korean invasion. According to the report, North Korea might provoke tensions around the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea under the pretext of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises. The scenario involves North Korean forces pretending to conduct live-fire drills as a form of countermeasure, then launching a surprise landing of troops on Yeonpyeong Island. Subsequently, the South Korean Air Force and Navy would counterattack, and while the Marine Corps succeeds in retaking Yeonpyeong Island, North Korea could launch tactical nuclear weapons toward nearby uninhabited islands.
Manning pointed out, "In such a case, both the U.S. and South Korea could lose control due to a lack of reliable diplomatic and military communication channels with North Korea." He further analyzed, "Both the U.S. and China lack a sense of urgency regarding the Korean Peninsula. China blames North Korea’s actions on U.S. sanctions, while in the U.S., the North Korean issue is likely to be sidelined due to escalating conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East."
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