Korea Real Estate Board - Real Estate R114
Announcement of 'Apartment Move-in Volume Forecast for the Next 2 Years' Postponed Without Notice
Move-in Cliff to Begin in 2026
"Government Concerned About Rising House Prices, Turning a Blind Eye" Criticism Arises
Rep. Ahn Tae-jun of the Democratic Party
"Government Halts Important Real Estate Statistics Announcements... Will Question During National Audit"
A residential complex in downtown Seoul featuring both apartments and houses. Photo by Jo Yongjun jun21@
The government has temporarily postponed the regular announcement of the 'scheduled apartment move-in volume' statistics. The trend in move-in volumes serves as fundamental data for predicting jeonse (long-term deposit lease) prices and sale prices, as well as essential information for real estate policy responses and home purchase planning.
Despite this, the government delayed the announcement, citing "fundamental limitations in making accurate predictions." In relation to this, the National Assembly and the real estate industry have pointed out, "Since apartment move-in volumes will significantly decrease starting in 2026, the government is postponing the announcement to avoid revealing this." It is expected to become a key issue in the upcoming National Assembly Land, Infrastructure and Transport Committee's audit starting on the 7th.
Temporary Suspension of Apartment Move-in Volume Announcements from 2026
On the 4th, Ahn Tae-jun, a member of the National Assembly Land, Infrastructure and Transport Committee from the Democratic Party of Korea, requested and received from the Korea Real Estate Board, a subordinate agency of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, the 'Regional Apartment Move-in Volume Data from the Second Half of This Year to the First Half of 2026.' However, the data contained neither the relevant figures nor the schedule for their announcement. The Real Estate Board stated, "Due to construction stoppages and delays, the expected move-in dates change, causing revisions in forecasts," and added, "Since nationwide sites are surveyed manually, there are limitations to making accurate predictions, and we are seeking solutions."
Since 2022, the Real Estate Board has announced the 'scheduled apartment move-in volumes for the next two years.' They collaborated with the private research firm Real Estate R114 to provide biannual forecasts. The announcements were made in late January to early February for the first half of the year, and late August to early September for the second half. However, this year's last announcement was in February. Now that October has arrived, neither the schedule nor the decision to announce the second half forecast is known. The figures to be announced this time were the 'regional apartment move-in volumes for the second half of this year, the first and second halves of next year, and the first half of 2026.'
Concerns Over Fueling House Price Increases
There is speculation that the government is delaying the announcement to avoid further fueling the controversy over apartment supply shortages. Representative Ahn said, "As apartment move-in volumes have decreased this year, causing house prices to rise, it appears the government has arbitrarily suspended the statistical announcements," and criticized, "The government has continuously revised the scheduled move-in volumes whenever they announced them, so now refusing to announce citing 'possible changes in forecasts' is inconsistent." He added, "Timely statistical announcements are important for the public's right to know," and stated, "I will raise this issue during the audit."
The private sector, which identifies 2026 as the apartment move-in cliff, also criticizes the government's behavior. Real Estate R114 predicted that the nationwide move-in volume would be about 264,109 households until next year, dropping to 153,867 households in 2026. Particularly, Seoul's move-in volume is expected to decrease by 80%, from 35,930 households to 6,966 households during the same period. The real estate big data company 'Asil' also forecasted a sharp decline in Seoul's apartment move-in volume (from 35,582 households to 2,388 households), although the figures vary depending on the aggregation method.
Government Says "No Move-in Cliff Until Next Year"
Contrary to these private sector criticisms, the government emphasizes that there is no problem with apartment supply by only mentioning move-in volumes until next year. Last month, Park Sang-woo, Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, stated at a press briefing, "The number of apartments scheduled for move-in in Seoul through reconstruction and redevelopment is 26,000 units this year and 33,000 units next year," adding, "This is higher than the past 10-year average of 20,000 units."
An anonymous real estate expert said, "From 2026, there will be almost no new apartment move-in volumes in Seoul, and the government is also concerned about a sharp rise in housing prices," and speculated, "Because of this, the government is turning a blind eye and unable to announce the 2026 move-in statistics."
He added, "According to current plans, between 2026 and 2027, residents of first-generation aging new towns like Bundang and Pyeongchon will begin relocating," and emphasized, "There is an urgent need for increased supply near Seoul and Gyeonggi Province, and the government and National Assembly must prepare countermeasures accordingly."
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