Biden and Trump 'Neck and Neck'... Tied in Polls Ahead of TV Debate

Average Poll Support Tied at 46%
Trump Slightly Leads in Battleground States but Outcome Uncertain

U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are locked in an ultra-close race with no difference in approval ratings ahead of their first presidential candidate TV debate.

On the 25th (local time), the U.S. daily The New York Times (NYT) reported that an analysis of the average nationwide poll approval ratings for the presidential candidates showed both tied at 46%.

This is somewhat favorable news for President Biden. For the past nine months, Biden had been trailing former President Trump by a small margin in polls.

Since Biden was nominated as the presidential candidate in March, he began closing the gap, while former President Trump appeared to falter following a guilty verdict.

However, in battleground states, former President Trump held a slight edge. In Wisconsin and Michigan, Trump led by 1 percentage point and 2 percentage points, respectively. In other states such as Pennsylvania (Biden 46%, Trump 48%), Nevada (Biden 45%, Trump 49%), Arizona (Biden 45%, Trump 48%), Georgia (Biden 45%, Trump 49%), and North Carolina (Biden 43%, Trump 48%), Trump also held a 2 to 5 percentage point advantage.

The NYT analyzed that these differences are not yet significant. They considered the race even closer than the final polls released just before U.S. presidential elections over the past 20 years. They particularly pointed out that Trump has not been able to lead by more than 2 percentage points in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Taking into account the margin of error in polls and the variable of independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., they projected that if the election were held today, President Biden could still win.