Leaders in Diplomacy and Security of Various Countries Diagnose
Response Methods Include Normalizing Relations and Increasing Defense Budgets
There have been assessments from diplomatic and security leaders of various countries that there is a possibility of international conflict involving the use of nuclear weapons by North Korea in the future. While countries that fear mutual destruction do not use nuclear weapons even if they possess them, North Korea is said to deviate from this characteristic. However, experts have differing opinions on how to respond to the possibility of North Korea using nuclear weapons, with views ranging from normalization of relations to increasing defense budgets.
Robert Gallucci, former U.S. Department of State Special Envoy for North Korean Nuclear Issues. Photo by Yonhap News
Robert Gallucci, Professor Emeritus at Georgetown University, stated in an article for the foreign affairs and security magazine National Interest on the 11th (local time), "We must at least keep in mind the possibility of a nuclear war occurring in Northeast Asia in 2024." Professor Gallucci is a U.S. diplomatic and security expert who led the 1994 "Geneva Agreed Framework," which promised light-water reactors and normalization of relations in exchange for North Korea halting its nuclear weapons development.
Professor Gallucci identified two major factors that could influence North Korea's decision to use nuclear weapons.
First, he argued that North Korea could undermine U.S. extended deterrence through the development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Another factor he pointed out is that North Korea, having possessed nuclear weapons for a short period, lacks the experience to manage situations to prevent escalation to a nuclear war leading to mutual destruction.
Therefore, Professor Gallucci argued, "The United States should sincerely pursue normalization of relations with North Korea, setting denuclearization not as the first step but as a longer-term goal in the process."
Grant Shapps, UK Secretary of State for Defence, also forecast on the 15th at Lancaster House in London, "Within five years, we will see conflict zones related to Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea."
Secretary Shapps emphasized that unlike during the Cold War, the current new powers such as North Korea do not stop wars through the strategy of mutual assured destruction (MAD). Mutual assured destruction refers to the characteristic that no country can easily attack another with nuclear weapons unless it is prepared for mutual annihilation. He also said, "The adversaries are more interconnected."
He urged allied countries to increase their defense budgets to prepare for the changed circumstances. Secretary Shapps emphasized that the UK plans to spend a record ?50 billion (approximately 84 trillion won) on defense this year and will increase it to 2.5% of GDP if economic conditions improve.
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