Concerns Over Unfavorable Two-Way Race in US Presidential Election... Emerging Third Candidate Kennedy

With the upcoming U.S. presidential election next year, current President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are engaged in a close race, but both candidates have high 'unfavorability' ratings, raising concerns. Meanwhile, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who has declared his candidacy, appears to have the potential to shake up the race with a 22% support rate.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent Candidate for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
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According to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted from the 14th to the 18th among 1,647 voters, if next year's election proceeds as a two-person race between President Biden and former President Trump, the two candidates are in a tight race with support rates of 47% and 46%, respectively.

However, in a hypothetical three-way race including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of former President John F. Kennedy and son of former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy, the support rates showed a significantly different pattern. The support for the two main candidates dropped by about 10 percentage points to 38% and 36%, respectively, while Kennedy secured 22% support.

Support for Kennedy was concentrated among younger voters under 40. Among voters aged 18 to 34, a remarkable 40% expressed support for Kennedy, showing higher support than President Biden (36%) and former President Trump (21%). Among respondents aged 35 to 49, 26% also supported Kennedy. In these age groups, Biden and Trump received 34% and 35% support, respectively.

By party affiliation, among Democratic supporters, President Biden had an overwhelming 75% support rate. Author Marianne Williamson received 13%, and Congressman Dean Phillips received 5%. Among Democratic supporters, 57% said they could change their preferred candidate, while 40% said they would not change their preferred candidate no matter what.

Among Republican supporters, former President Trump had 67% support. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley each had similar support at 11%. Among Republican supporters, 50% said they might change their preferred candidate depending on the situation until the party primary, while 48% said they would not change their preferred candidate no matter what.