Lowest Marriage Rate in China Since 1986... Concerns Over Ineffectiveness of Three-Child Policy
Aftereffects of Rapid Growth... Delayed Marriages Due to Housing Prices and Childcare and Education Costs
[Asia Economy Senior Reporter Cho Young-shin] China's marriage rate has fallen to the lowest level since statistics began to be compiled. This statistic supports concerns that China's population decline will begin in earnest before 2025. Although the Chinese government has introduced a three-child policy to encourage childbirth, the population decline in China is becoming a reality.
On the 1st, Chinese media such as China News Network cited statistics released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, reporting that the number of couples registering marriages last year decreased by 6.1% from the previous year to 7.643 million pairs. This is the lowest since related statistics began to be compiled in 1986. Also, the number of marriage registrations falling below 8 million is the first time in 19 years since 2002 (7.86 million cases).
The Ministry of Civil Affairs explained that the marriage rate last year was 5.4 per 1,000 people, down from 5.9 the previous year.
The number of marriage registrations in China has been rapidly declining every year, peaking at 13.469 million cases in 2013, then 12.247 million in 2015, 10.631 million in 2017, 9.273 million in 2019, and 8.131 million in 2020.
The age group for marriage is also gradually increasing. Among those who got married last year, 4.384 million were aged 30 or older, accounting for 48.2% of the total.
According to data analyzed by Chinese economic media Caijing, the proportion of those aged 30 or older among newlyweds was only 18.7% in 2005, but it has been rising every year: 30.8% in 2010, 42.2% in 2018, and 46.5% in 2020. Last year, the proportion of those aged 40 or older also reached 19.5%. In contrast, the 20-24 age group, which accounted for 47% in 2005, sharply declined to 37.6% in 2010, 21.5% in 2018, and 18.6% in 2020.
The Ministry of Civil Affairs classifies marriage age groups as 20-24, 25-29, 30-34, 35-39, and 40 or older for statistical purposes.
The marriage rate is directly linked to childbirth. According to the National Health Commission, the average number of children per fertile woman in China last year was 1.64, down from 1.76 five years earlier in 2017. Although 17 Chinese government departments jointly prepared measures to address low birth rates and aging, the prevailing view is that population decline in China is inevitable.
Chinese media cite factors such as housing prices, childcare and education costs, high university enrollment rates, changes in values due to economic development, and economic slowdown caused by the spread of COVID-19 as the main reasons for the sharp drop in marriage rates.
Yang Jinrui, Director of the Population Management Bureau of the National Health Commission, said, "The main group of marriageable age, the post-90s generation, mostly grew up in cities and are highly educated. They mostly suffer from high housing prices and employment pressure."
Zhai Jianwu, Chairman of the China Population Association under the National Health Commission, expressed concern, saying, "An increase in marriage age means a decrease in childbirth, which will also affect the three-child policy introduced by the Chinese government."
Some voices in China argue that after China, a developing country, rose to the position of the world's two major powers (G2), Chinese society quickly contracted the "advanced country disease." Although China's technological competitiveness has improved compared to previous years, the core of competitiveness remains population. Furthermore, the prevailing view is that population decline will negatively impact domestic demand (consumption), which is a strong pillar of the Chinese economy.
Meanwhile, Chinese judicial authorities amended the civil law in January last year to mandate a "divorce cooling-off period," indirectly restricting divorces.
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