[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] China Has Started to Move

Strengthening the Ocean Navy Power According to the Maritime Strategy... Consecutive Construction of Aircraft Carriers
Likely to Independently Enhance Forces Following Russia's Invasion of Ukraine

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Concerns are rising over China's military provocations as it conducts live-fire exercises in response to Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, visiting Taiwan. This demonstrates China's military confidence to the extent of directly targeting the third-highest ranking U.S. official.

It is also predicted that China will strengthen its naval power by intensifying training centered around aircraft carriers. There is a possibility of conducting a "dual carrier" exercise simultaneously deploying the Shandong, an aircraft carrier of the Southern Theater Command, and the Liaoning, an aircraft carrier of the Northern Theater Command. Considering this, the situation could escalate beyond the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis of 1995-1996, when multiple missiles were launched around the waters near Taiwan.

The reason China aims to form a carrier strike group is to prevent U.S. carrier strike groups from entering within 1,000 km of the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. evaluates this as an "overseas expansion" of military power that surpasses the "Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD)" strategy. This strategy blocks enemy aircraft carriers from approaching the coast and thoroughly destroys enemy naval forces within a certain range from the shore.

Some analysts suggest that if the U.S. and China were to clash militarily in Northeast Asia, China might have the advantage. While the U.S. operates about 750 overseas military bases and must maintain military power over a wide area, China’s military strength is concentrated in Northeast Asia.

China has been strengthening its blue-water navy in line with the "string of pearls" strategy. This strategy aims to create a maritime defense perimeter by linking islands like a chain, thereby absorbing the world into its operational control. After securing sea control over the first string of pearls connecting Okinawa, Taiwan, and the South China Sea in 2010, China expanded to the second string of pearls (Saipan, Guam, Indonesia) by 2020 and has set a strategy to block U.S. Navy dominance in the Pacific and Indian Oceans by 2040.

To this end, China is expected to strengthen its independent military power while its largest strategic partner, Russia, remains mired in the war following its invasion of Ukraine. China aims to establish a four-carrier system by 2030, with nuclear-powered aircraft carriers capable of long-range operations on the high seas as the ultimate goal.

For Blue-Water Navy, Liaoning Carrier Strike Group Completes Longest-Ever Open-Sea Training
Overseas Military Bases from Africa’s Djibouti to Cambodia
Under the Pretext of International Anti-Terrorism Activities but Essentially Part of Global Strategy

China’s People’s Liberation Army is also expected to significantly increase its open-sea training. Earlier this year, the Liaoning carrier strike group completed its longest-ever open-sea training and returned to the East China Sea. The Liaoning carrier strike group stayed for about 20 days in the western Pacific Ocean east of Taiwan and south of Japan, conducting over 300 sorties of fighter jets and helicopters.

Strategic regional footholds are also expected to increase. In May, Wang Yi, China’s State Councilor and Foreign Minister, visited eight countries including the Solomon Islands and its neighboring countries, strategic key points in the South Pacific. China signed a security agreement with the Solomon Islands that includes dispatching Chinese naval vessels to the Solomon Islands and receiving logistical support locally as needed.

China is also strengthening its overseas military bases. It opened its first overseas military base in Djibouti, Africa, in 2017, and is militarizing some reefs in the South China Sea, where it has territorial disputes with Southeast Asian countries. Djibouti is the first overseas military base China has established since the Korean War. Since then, China has secured exclusive-use piers in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, the Solomon Islands, Cambodia’s ports, and even Darwin Port in Australia.

China claims these are for overseas anti-terrorism activities. In 2015, China enacted the "Anti-Terrorism Law," allowing the People’s Liberation Army and armed police to conduct or participate in overseas anti-terrorism operations. The law, effective from the following year, also established the "National Anti-Terrorism Information Center" to collect and analyze various terrorism-related information domestically and internationally, and granted public security agencies authority for wiretapping and surveillance. However, military experts analyze this as a step toward entering the final stage of a global strategy.

One military expert said, “China and Russia may strengthen joint exercises in response to future South Korea-U.S. combined exercises. China will monitor the seven rear logistics bases in Japan that support the South Korea-U.S. combined defense posture, and since Russia is also in territorial disputes with Japan, they can share a broad strategic alignment.”