'Pro-China Controversy' WHO Embarrassed by Basic Statistical Error This Time [Reading Science]

Statistics on Excess Deaths from the COVID-19 Pandemic Announced on the 4th of Last Month Are Incorrect

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] The World Health Organization (WHO) has been embarrassed for miscalculating the number of deaths worldwide due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It is also criticized for causing distrust by showing a pro-China bias and failing to properly respond in the early stages of the pandemic in 2020, thus failing to contain the spread.

According to the international academic journal Nature on the 1st (local time), WHO announced on the 4th of last month an estimate of excess deaths caused by COVID-19 across 194 countries worldwide. The estimate suggested that the number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic from January 2020 to December 2021 could reach between 13.3 million and 16.6 million. This figure was 2.5 times higher than the official death tolls announced by governments worldwide, but some pointed out that it was actually a conservative estimate rather than reflecting the real situation. In particular, Germany, which was considered to have relatively well managed COVID-19 among European countries, showed an excessively high number of excess deaths, raising suspicions of errors.

As a result, there were continuous claims that the data was strange, and eventually, in mid-last month, the person in charge admitted the error and announced that corrections would be made. On the 18th of last month, John Wakefield, a statistics professor at the University of Washington and WHO’s head of statistics, stated on his Twitter account, "We realized there was a problem almost simultaneously with the announcement and are currently reviewing all estimates." In an interview with Nature, he also said, "The estimates are wrong and need to be corrected." Although WHO has not yet changed the official statistics posted on its website, it is known that the figures will be revised by the end of this year. In Germany’s case, the number is expected to be revised down from the originally estimated 195,000 to 122,000, while in Sweden, the figure is expected to rise from 55.8 to 66.1 per 100,000 population.

Meanwhile, countries around the world reacted sensitively to WHO’s announcement of excess death estimates from the COVID-19 pandemic earlier last month. For example, in Germany, criticism of the government’s quarantine policies intensified as the damage was estimated to be greater than expected. The Indian government also publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the estimate of 3.3 million to 6.5 million excess deaths, which was ten times higher than their own estimates.