Possibility of Domestic Emergence of XL, XM, XE Variants
New 'Major Variants' Could Drive Resurgence in the Second Half of the Year
[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] With a total of three recombinant COVID-19 variant viruses confirmed domestically, attention is focused on how they might affect future resurgence. These variants are analyzed to have no distinctive features compared to the existing Omicron (BA.1), but since they may have originated domestically, there is also the possibility that the variants have already spread within the community.
According to the quarantine authorities on the 20th, two cases of the XE variant and one case of the XM variant, new Omicron variants, were recently additionally discovered in the country. On the 12th, the XL variant was confirmed for the first time domestically. Among the total 17 recombinant variants from XA to XS, three have been found in Korea. All three variants are recombinants of the Omicron BA.1 lineage and BA.2, which is called stealth Omicron.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), except for the XE variant, the two other Omicron recombinant variants show no distinctive features compared to the existing virus. Initial WHO research reported that the XE variant has a 10% higher transmissibility than BA.2. Since BA.2 has about 30% higher transmissibility than BA.1, and BA.1 itself spreads faster than the non-variant COVID-19, the XE variant has the potential to spread rapidly. However, WHO classifies XE, XL, XM, and other Omicron recombinant variants as general Omicron.
All three variants may have originated domestically. Except for one XE variant case (imported from the UK), the XL variant, one XE variant case, and the XM variant infected individuals are domestic confirmed cases with no overseas travel history. Professor Kim Woo-joo of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Korea University Guro Hospital said, "After BA.1 was prevalent in January, BA.2 became dominant, and both circulated simultaneously in March. Since the scale of infections in Korea was large globally at the same time, there is sufficient possibility for recombinant variants to emerge."
The possibility that the variant viruses have already spread in the community cannot be ruled out. The quarantine authorities announced that they are conducting epidemiological investigations on two cohabitants and eleven coworkers of the XL variant confirmed patient diagnosed on the 23rd of last month. Park Young-jun, head of the epidemiological investigation team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "However, some of these individuals showed symptom onset or confirmation dates earlier than the XL infected patient, so we are investigating the chronological relationship and the extent of community transmission."
Experts predict that along with Omicron recombinant variants, new ‘major variants’ may emerge and cause a resurgence domestically. Professor Kim said, "In the past two years and four months, five major variants have appeared, including Delta in April and Omicron in November last year. Based on past trends, major variants could also appear in May to June, and with the easing of overseas travel restrictions, it has become easier for variants to be introduced."
The quarantine authorities also anticipate the possibility of resurgence in the second half of the year. Lee Sang-won, head of the epidemiological investigation and analysis team at the Central Disease Control Headquarters, said, "Around late autumn, due to waning immunity and the emergence of new variants, there is a possibility of COVID-19 outbreaks not only in Korea but worldwide."
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