Kim Eo-jun Raises Doubts About Poll Accuracy Before Presidential Election
"Even Within the Same Agency, Consistency Is Lacking"
[Asia Economy Reporter Lim Ju-hyung] Broadcaster Kim Eo-jun claimed that domestic polling agencies cannot be trusted and announced plans to establish an independent polling agency. In response, former Saenuri Party (predecessor of the People Power Party) lawmaker Jeon Yeo-ok strongly criticized him.
On the 3rd, Jeon posted on her blog, "Kim Eo-jun says he is starting a polling company. As expected, leftists are always about 'money, money, money,'" sarcastically criticizing him.
She continued, "Kim Eo-jun, who used to work on 'conspiracy theories,' is now handling a 'professional job' dealing with numbers? He is quickly recruiting members who will fund the polling," adding, "There were many rumors about 'money for nothing' with his film projects and other ventures, but he got a pass for the past five years while acting as the 'guru' of the Moon Jae-in administration," she lambasted.
Earlier, on the 1st, Kim posted an article titled "Establishing a Polling Agency. Recruiting Members" on the 'Ddanzi Ilbo' website. At that time, he stated, "This will be the first membership-based polling agency with complete independence from any external influence, providing expert in-depth analysis and regularly produced reports," and announced plans to recruit paying members who would pay an annual membership fee.
The membership fee is 100,000 KRW per year, 270,000 KRW for three years, and members can voluntarily pay more than 500,000 KRW if they wish.
In response, former lawmaker Jeon said, "(The polling company) is membership-based: 100,000 KRW for one year, 270,000 KRW for three years, and the 500,000 KRW 'rose' members will be treated to dinner by Kim Eo-jun," adding, "This is a scenario where those gaslighted into giving money eat 'expensive meals bestowed by the guru' and feel grateful," she pointed out.
She went on, "The polling company is named 'Kkot' (Flower). The first thought that comes to mind is, 'A rose from the trash can?' They really have a lot of nerve," and claimed, "Now, even misleading the public through broadcasting is showing its limits. This is a new 'one-shot greed' scheme blatantly planning to manipulate numbers in polling," she argued.
Meanwhile, on February 7th, during the height of the 20th presidential election campaign, Kim raised doubts about the presidential candidate polls.
At that time, on his TBS radio show 'Kim Eo-jun's News Factory,' he said, "These days, polls are quite exceptional. It's natural for numbers to vary between polling agencies, but even within a single poll, the consistency is lacking," and added, "It's not the individual numbers that matter, but the consistency within a single poll should be maintained, shouldn't it?"
He continued, "Should we interpret this as public opinion fluctuating that much, or should we see it as a limitation in current polling methods to capture public sentiment? I've been watching polls for nearly 20 years, but this is the first time I've seen this," he said.
He also predicted that polling agencies might change their sample aggregation methods in the future. Kim said, "During the 2016 U.S. presidential election, all polling agencies said Hillary had a 99% chance of winning, but Trump won. After that, there were major changes in polling methods in the U.S. In Korea, after the 2008 local elections, when results were very inaccurate, polling agencies adjusted their measurement methods themselves. Depending on the results of this election, the same could happen," he forecasted.
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